The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam of each calendar year, played on hard courts at Melbourne Park in weeks three and four of each season, before the South American clay and European indoor hard segments in the tour calendar. This page should help you pinpoint some solid Australian Open betting strategies.
The format of the Australian Open is straightforward, featuring 128 players in each of the men’s and women’s singles events, with no players receiving first-round byes. There are 32 seeds, completely based on world rankings at a specific cut-off date, and unlike Wimbledon, the tournament director will not get creative with his seedings. As with all Grand Slams, the men play best of five sets - an arduous test of fitness - while the women play best of three.
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The first factor worth considering when looking at Australian Open betting is the fitness of players. While Grand Slams later on in the season often feature players with injury and fitness doubts, the Australian Open has a rather different dynamic, taking place at the start of the season after the players have had a month or two to rest and recharge their batteries.
However, this is rather complicated by the often oppressive heat that occurs in Australia in January, and particularly in the men’s (best of five set) event, retirements are frequently more commonplace than for other Grand Slam events - with Australian Open betting, a check of your bookmaker retirement policy can be of great assistance, and perhaps even tilt the odds in your favour a little more.
Further considerations for Australian Open betting include player performances in warm-up events, but it should be noted that in particular, warm-up venues in Australia tend to be played in very quick conditions, which aren’t usually mirrored at Melbourne Park. With this in mind, some strong performances by big-servers in the run-up to the Australian Open - these are players who tend to thrive in quick conditions - shouldn’t be overvalued.
Generally, men’s Grand Slam events favour the elite-level players, and the cream does traditionally rise to the top - the best of five set format reduces the number of shocks. This is illustrated by the general tournament odds for the winners across the last four seasons:
| Year | Winner | Initial Outright Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Roger Federer | 9/5 |
| 2017 | Roger Federer | 20/1 |
| 2016 | Novak Djokovic | 4/6 |
| 2015 | Novak Djokovic | 11/10 |
Only Federer in 2017 was a price bigger than 2/1, and this was for an elite-level player who missed the second half of the preceding season with a knee injury, and was thus seeded at a lower level than usually would be the case.
This dominance from elite level players was a recurring theme over the last decade. From 2008 onwards, only Novak Djokovic (6 titles), Roger Federer (3 titles) and Rafa Nadal and Stan Wawrinka (one title apiece) were champions, and only Wawrinka, and the previously injured Federer was ranked outside the top three in the world.
In addition, looking at runners-up, only Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (in 2008) was ranked outside the top 10 in the world, so it is evident that long-shot, lowly ranked, players do not get to the final of the Australian Open on a regular basis. This is something that tennis betting enthusiasts should keep in mind when looking at the competition
The women’s event, as is usually the case in Grand Slam tennis, has more of an open feel, although every winner in the last decade has been ranked inside the top 10. However, the winners list is far less dominated by several big names - as has been the case with the men’s event - and from 2008 onwards, seven different players have taken the women’s trophy.
As mentioned in the men’s event, the best of five set format leads itself to the better players making it through to the latter stages of the tournament, and there are a number of clear dynamics worth observing when formulating Australian Open betting strategies. One example of these is the dominance of favourites during the ‘business end’ of the tournament. Of the 73 completed matches played in the fourth round or onwards since 2014, 62 went the way of the favourite (84.9%) while underdogs picked up just 11 victories.
A large part of this is down to the higher levels of fitness exhibited by the top players on the men’s tour, and the avoidance of accumulated fatigue that the top players are better at achieving during the earlier rounds of the event. Something to keep in mind when wagering at top tennis betting sites. In addition, just three of these 73 matches (4.1%) featured a favourite losing in straight sets and men’s favourites won at least two sets in a huge 90.4% of matches in the fourth round onwards since 2014.
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