It's one of the hottest topics of debate in UK politics at the moment. Now punters can put their money where their mouths are, with a number of bookmakers taking bets on the outcome of the EU referendum vote, which will be held on Thursday 23rd June 2016.
Betfred Sports is just one sportsbook that's accepting bets as to whether the UK will remain in the EU after the referendum. This betting market follows in the footsteps of the General Election of last year, which saw millions of pounds wagered on its result.
At the time of writing, the bookie, which is headquartered in Warrington, has priced the 'Remain' vote at 1/3, with 'Leave' being the outsider at 9/4. Betfred spokesman Peter Spencer said:
“Around 60 people in the Warrington area have voted on it and so far about two-thirds of them are in favour of staying in. The General Election affects people's lives for four to five years but this will impact on them for decades to come – it is so important."
A number of bookmakers have also created prices for yes and no voters to have a flutter or two, with William Hill Sports offering a multitude of markets. As well as the main category of ‘Remain or Leave’, they're accepting bets on the percentage of ‘Remain’ votes cast as well as voter turnout.
Punters can even have a flutter on the individual country voting results, with England, Scotland and Wales all having their own reasons to remain in the EU or seek independence.
As ever, a number of polls have been conducted to gauge early voter patterns; most notably by YouGov, who have found in their last four polls that the support for the Remain campaign has become stronger. Their initial vote early in February found that Leave had taken an early lead with 38%, which contradicted the bookmakers’ pricing; although since then the Remain campaign has been supported more prominently, with up to 40% of the votes.
The big problem for the sportsbooks is trying to uncover the intentions of the ‘undecided’ voters, which account for around 20% of the popular poll findings. Between 2% and 5% have confirmed that they won’t vote, and so the floating voters will need convincing by the campaigns put together by David Cameron (Remain) and Boris Johnson (Leave) in the coming months.
But as ever, it could be the older generation who has the biggest say. Early indications show that 78% of over 65s voted in the General Election of 2015, with less than half (43%) of 18-24 year olds following suit. With nearly double the older demographic voting than the younger, and then tending to side with more conservative politics and thus the Leave campaign, perhaps the 9/4 offered by William Hill represents sound betting value.
To get a head-start on the latest EU referendum odds, head over to Bedfred Sports today!