Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 18th, 2021

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BEST 2021 ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

• Won over at least 2m7f
• Run in three or more hurdles
• Not run for at least 27 days
• Placed in Grade 2, or won Grade 3
• Finished first three last time

Betting On 2021's Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this Cheltenham Festival Grade 1, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the key trends to follow.

Get the latest Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle odds here

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Did Trends win the last Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle?

Three horses fit last year's Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle trends, and two made the frame.

Fury Road was the strongest trends pick, having won at Grade 2 and Grade 3 level and over at least 2m7f. He had plenty of hurdling experience, and 40 days since his last race to prepare for Cheltenham's unique challenges.

He was also trained by top race trainer Gordon Elliott, who although not yet a winner of the race, has had placed horses in almost all of the last five renewals. The one negative was that he had finished fourth - and not top three - last time out, but it was a Grade 1, and this race does not require Grade 1 form for success, only Grade 2 and proven stamina.

He finished third, beaten a neck and a nose by Monkfish, who fit every single trend, except the requirement to have at least Grade 3 form. This was overlooked because he was among only five horses in the field who had won over at least 2m7f.

He was also the most fancied of trainer Willie Mullins's trio, and therefore we had to trust he knew he was up to this class, keeping in mind we already knew he stayed - something we did not know about the majority of his rivals.

Ramses De Teillee was the wildcard picked out on trends, and eight-year-old handicap chaser dropping back to hurdles, much like the 2008 winner Nenuphar Collonges. He fit all the important trends, including having won over further than 2m6f and at Grade 2 level.

It was particularly attractive that he had won Haydock's Prestige Novices' Hurdle, often a good guide to Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle success.

The one negative was that he had then gone on to win another Grade 2, giving himself only 26 days off until his Cheltenham date. The average space between Cheltenham and an Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle winner is 49 days. It could just have been too tired, when weakening quickly after the penultimate flight to finish 13th of 15.

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KEY ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Had not run for at least 27 days
• Finished in the first four last time out

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had run in at least two hurdle races; nine ran in at least three
• Last ran no more than 78 days ago
• Finished in the first three last time out; six won
• Had run at least four times in the past 12 months, including point-to-points
• Had won every race they had run in at Cheltenham before

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged between 6-8; exception was five
• Had won on a galloping track before; exception had never won
• Had run at least three times that season, majority ran four times or more
• Had won a race run over at least 2m7f before; exception Bobs Worth (2011)
• Had finished in the first three in a Grade 2 or Grade 3; seven won; exception never tried

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had won at least two hurdle races; exceptions won none and one
• Last ran in a Graded novices' hurdle; exceptions Monkfish (2020), Unowhatimeanharry (2016)

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
• Finished in the first five last time out

29/30 placed horses

• Had run in at least two novice hurdles
• Last ran in a handicap or novices’ hurdle
• Had their last run between 26 and 90 days ago

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Monkfish won 2020's Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

In a thrilling finish Monkfish won a three-way battle for 2020 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle glory by a neck.

Sent off at 5/1, the tall son of Stowaway galloped away from the last upsides two of his toughest rivals, and was half a length down, in the middle of the threesome, only 100 yards from the line.

4.50 CHELTENHAM - 2020 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Result

1. Monkfish 5/1
2. Latest Exhibition 9/2
3. Fury Road 4/1f

But jockey Paul Townend kept asking, and Monkfish's huge stride kept lengthening up, the six-year-old's head and neck getting out in front just as they hit the finish line. The Paul Nolan-trained Latest Exhibition, who had had the benefit of the inside rail since the last flight, took an agonisingly close second, and on the outside third went to Gigginstown House Stud's Fury Road by a nose.

The 4/1 favourite Thyme Hill was bang in contention at the last, but was short for room in a messy run-in and lost momentum, fading to finish a length a quarter behind Fury Road in fourth.

These four finished upwards of 10 lengths clear of the rest.

Cheltenham 2021 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Mares Chase - NEW RACE

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle