Baseball Betting Strategy: Runs Over/Under Strategy

SHARE

Baseball Betting Strategy: Runs Over/Under Strategy

Everyone talks about backing the underdog in baseball, and there's no doubt that it's a system with potential, but total runs is a mathematician's market with plenty of profit to be had.

A War of Numbers

Since the advent of the Moneyball system, where teams became much more shrewd in 'buying runs' with their player purchases and team strategies, statistics have been very much at the core of baseball. Teams have countered the buying of runs, bases and hits by looking at strikes, and other defensive stats: and a war of numbers has ensued.

Runs Over/Under Betting

The great thing for gamblers is that these numbers become our weapons in predicting their performance. And identifying teams to bet on in the runs over/under market will normally depend on a comparison of teams' batting average and earned run average (ERA), which are, respectively, the average hits divided by the number of bats and runs given up by the pitchers per nine innings.

Spotting Teams with Strong Defense, Weak Scoring or Vice Versa

Take the Atlanta Braves, for example - at the time of writing, they sat top of the MLB table in terms of ERA with an impressive 2.04. To put that into context, second-placed Milwaukee's ERA is 2.58, and the worst ERA in the league was Arizona on 5.17. Atlanta's defensive approach is so powerful that they have the second best record in MLB so far in the 2014 season, despite having the fourth worst scoring record.

Why is this important for the runs over/under market? Because spotting teams with a strong defensive record and weak scoring record, or vice versa, is a great way to spot games that will be especially high or low scoring; and that's where the value lies. Odds usually hover around evens for most bets, rarely rising in excess of 2/1 or falling below 1/2, so finding extreme performers is one of the keys to unlocking value.

Comparing Stats

Once you've identified teams that are worth betting on, it's then a matter of comparing the key statistics with their opponents. Take the Colorado Rockies at the Arizona Diamondbacks on 28 April as an example. Colorado boast the best batting average in the league. Arizona, despite having the worst record, are still 20th (of 30). On the defensive side, Colorado's 4.13 ERA places them 21st and Arizona are rock bottom. That sets the scene for a high scorer, and a wise punter would have taken over 9.5 runs at 7/5, because the match finished 8-5 to the Rockies.

Shorthand Approach

If you're looking to build a quick, simple betting system without the excess statistical analysis, there is a relatively reliable shorthand too. Any MLB standings worth their salt will show you a team's runs scored and runs against. Use these to work out the runs per game for and against, then, when two teams face off, simply average their averages for a good idea of where the score may finish.

This system can be quickly and easily tweaked for accuracy by factoring in position as an extra point for or against. For example, for every five places that separates the teams in the standings, award a point to the top ranking team. Playing with simple adjustments like these will help make regular returns in this surprisingly predictable sport.

And for all the latest odds, visit Betway Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


Betting Tips for WrestleMania 33: Goldberg Battles Lesner
Betting Tips for WrestleMania 33: Goldberg Battles Lesner

The wait is nearly over for this year's much anticipated WWE WrestleMania 33. There are some mouth-watering matches lined up for those who enjoy taking a punt when these giants clash – not least Brock ... Read More

If Not Backing Hamilton, Experts Suggest Bottas in Melbourne
If Not Backing Hamilton, Experts Suggest Bottas in Melbourne

The new Formula One season kicks off this weekend and with the sport under new management and new technical rules coming into force this season, there’s added intrigue for F1 fans. As usual, the champ ... Read More

Expect United Front from England v Lithuania in WC Qualifier
Expect United Front from England v Lithuania in WC Qualifier

Just occasionally, the importance of the beautiful game pales into insignificance in the grander scheme of things. This latest vs Lithuania in a long line of Russia World Cup qualifiers offers the Eng ... Read More

Why You Should Bet the Spread for Six Nations 2017 Round 5
Why You Should Bet the Spread for Six Nations 2017 Round 5

The fifth and final round of the RBS Six Nations 2017 kicks off this weekend - Saturday, 18 March - with England leading the pack. For them, it's about chasing consecutive wins. For everyone else, it’ ... Read More

Expert Betting Tips for NCAA March Madness 2017
Expert Betting Tips for NCAA March Madness 2017

There is no real equivalent in the UK so it's hard for us to understand the sheer excitement and anticipation that builds ahead of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – known commercially as 'March M ... Read More

Can Leicester City Upset the Bookies Again?
Can Leicester City Upset the Bookies Again?

The line-up for the 2016/17 Champions League quarter-finals will be completed this week as the final set of the round of 16 second legs take place. So far there are two German and two Spanish teams in ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide