While the US presidential election victory of Donald Trump in 2016 caused shockwaves around the world, his win was less of a surprise to the smart gamblers who had listened to the political betting experts who’d identified his value early on in the voting campaign and were confident he could win.
Similarly, the largely negative media spin around Trump caused many bookmakers to offer relatively generous prices on the President finishing his first year's term in office – something astute political punters were keen to invest in.
Despite Trump remaining someone sections of the press largely deride, his first year in the White House has seen his odds fall as more people took the bookmakers’ prices. The movement in Trump's odds raised the question of whether the President's odds remain good value – or whether the drifting price is worth backing.
Despite persistent calls for Donald Trump to be impeached during the first year of his presidency, the man has defiantly met fire with fire. Those who have backed Trump to remain in office during 2017 look in an increasingly strong position. Online bookmaker Paddy Power has cut the price of Donald Trump to 4/7 to not be impeached by Sunday 31, December 2017.
With Christmas fast approaching, there isn't long to go until that date. And having made it through almost 11 months of his first year of office, Trump’s odds of 4/7 could on the face of it be an early Christmas present, whether backed alone or as a safe-looking selection in an accumulator.
However, there is an increasing amount of media pressure on the President, and from powerful people. Most notably, billionaire hedge fund mogul Tom Steyer is set to bombard New York’s Time Square with digital billboards designed to lead to the impeachment of Trump. He’s also running campaign-style TV ads.
Steyer hopes the billboards and TV drive will persuade people to sign a petition, calling for Congress to impeach the President. Steyer claims Trump has taken the US to the brink of nuclear war, caused the FBI logistical problems and threatened to shut down media organisations, acting against constitutional laws.
With six Democrats in the House of Representatives having already filed articles of impeachment towards Mr Trump, the pressure on the President has seen his odds of being impeached before the end of 2017 drift to 5/4 with online bookmakers. However, Trump has been quick to respond to his detractors, having sent a tweeted response:
"Wacky and totally unhinged Tom Steyer, who has been fighting me and my Make America Great Again agenda from beginning, never wins elections!"
For those looking to bet on Trump's impeachment, it's worth considering the fact that no President has ever been evicted from the White House via the impeachment and conviction process. The Republicans rule the roost in both the House and the Senate, with House Democratic Leader, Nancy Pelosi, labelling the current impeachment efforts as premature in light of the ongoing Russian investigations.
Furthermore, she believes that any impeachment would need concrete facts, not personal opinion. Backing Donald Trump with an online bookmaker to not be impeached in his first term of office looks a sound bet, but betting on him to face this in 2018 and beyond is another market gaining momentum.
While possible, the odds on the President being impeached in 2018 sit at 11/4, followed by 7/1 in 2019, all the way to 50/1 in 2020. Naturally, should Trump actually be impeached, the reason for its instigation will be of interest, with treason sitting at 2/1, followed by perjury at 4/1, tax evasion at 16/1 and bribery at 20/1!