Breeders Cup’ Distaff Betting Odds, Tips & Top Picks 2018

Scott Hazelton

October 31st, 2018

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Quick Tip:

• Bet Abel Tasman at 7/2 to win BC Distaff with Betfair.
• Include La Force at 20/1 on any exacta, trifecta or superfecta with Paddy Power

Three-year-old fillies have done just fine in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and the reality is that the three-year-olds who have won were absolute stars. Untapable, Beholder, Royal Delta and Ashado are the most recent in that category.

Is Monomoy Girl, the 2/1 morning line favorite at Betfair, of that cut? Ninety-five percent of her year she has displayed that quality, but that five percent in question looms large when it comes to Breeders Cup betting.

The last quarter of a mile in the Cotillion, the race in which she was disqualified from a win for an inability to maintain a straight course, was not flattering. It should have a lasting impression on horse racing betting fans because for the first time we saw a vulnerable and tired Monomoy Girl.

It’s not a good look, and swallowing the 2/1 price you are going to get off of that seems tough.

Can Abel Tasman Bounce Back?

It is tough to endorse a horse coming into a race such as the Breeders’ Cup Distaff off of the worst race of her career, but she’s trained by Bob Baffert and as a gambler that should be enough to offset worry.

As I’ve stated before with Abel Tasman at 7/2 with Betfair, consider that as a Breeders’ Cup gift, if you can get it. I just can’t see Baffert and China Horse Club, in an era where it seems that connections are looking for reasons to pull the plug on a career in order to not diminish a horse’s breeding value, running her if she’s not up to task.

If any trainer can get her right with the aggressive training program that he maintains, it’s Baffert. The Hall of Fame Trainer gets amazing stock, and as a result asks a lot of them with their training.

Abel Tasman’s best races blow the doors off of this field off compared to their best races. Anything in the 5/2 range at race time makes her a big win play candidate.

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Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Tips

Midnight Bisou, Wow Cat, Wonder Gadot and Vale Dori just simply are not good enough in my opinion and their speed figures back that up.

Blue Prize, at 6/1 with William Hill, announced herself as a player after getting a Grade 1 win in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. She has been ultra-consistent this year, and if the two favorites don’t show up off of questionable races, Blue Prize will be the one to pounce and take advantage of it.

If you are a player of exactas, trifectas or superfectas, do not leave La Force (20/1 at Paddy Power) off of your tickets. On paper it looks like she’s simply filling out spots in the top 2 behind horses she could never beat in her recent races.

The reality is that she has run some very big races and is trained by Paddy Gallagher, who maintains a high strike rate with horses shipping to run, 22 percent, better that his overall percentage. Also, La Force will be a bigger price than 20/1 at post time.

Breeders Cup Distaff 2018 Best Bet

I believe a lot of people will not recognize the below-average aspect of Monomoy Girl’s DQ in the Cotillion. She was sloppy late.

You’re not supposed to win a Breeders’ Cup race off of the “Ball Drop” that Abel Tasman had at 1/10 in her last race, but people that watch her train each day tell me she looks better than she did prior to the flop. Take the ’17 Kentucky Oaks winner over the ’18 version and bet Abel Tasman at 7/2 to win the Distaff with Betfair.