Cross Country Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 4th, 2020

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BEST 2020 CHELTENHAM CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS

• Aged eight or older
• At least seven chase starts
• Run in a chase over 3m6f or further
• Placed top five in cross country or banks race
• Run at least twice that season

Betting On Cheltenham's 2020 Cross Country Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2020 Cross Country Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Cross Country Chase, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Cross Country Chase, as they did last year when circling Tiger Roll.

Scroll down to find out why the trends loved Tiger Roll so much last year, and read full details of the other Cheltenham Cross Country trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Cheltenham Cross Country Chase odds here

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Did Trends Win Cheltenham's Last Festival Cross Country Chase?

With last year's winner Tiger Roll coming in to the Cross Country Chase in winning form, there could only be one trends pick.

The nine-year-old had ticked all the boxes a year earlier when romping to his first win in the race and in even better shape was sent off at 5/4f in the 2019 Cheltenham betting odds.

Second Urgent De Gregaine, second in 2018, had only run once since (144 days ago), making him much harder to shortlist on trends, but third Josies Orders did fit the bill, with several course-and-distance wins and plenty of good recent form.

The only other horse that made the trends shortlist was Auvergnat, who had been fourth in 2017 and 2018. He had gone on to win the famed La Touche Cup over the banks at the Punchestown Festival, and went on to land the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival, lining up fresh.

Unfortunately the nine-year-old went no further than 26 fences, dropping back quickly after the 23rd.

KEY CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS

Note: This cross country race was a handicap until 2016

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged eight or older
• Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
• Had run at least twice that season
• Last ran no more than 117 days ago

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had an average official rating of 143
• Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
• Had run a minimum of seven times over fences
• Had won at least one chase

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged no older than 10
• Last ran at least 30 days ago
• Had run over 3m4f or further before - six winning
• Had run at Cheltenham before - the majority over fences, six had won
• Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
• Had run in at least one cross country race or banks race; exception was Rivage D'Or (2015)

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Were trained in Ireland; exception Balthazar King twice
• Had run in at least 13 chases
• Had run in at least 13 hurdle races
• Had run in at least one Cheltenham cross country race before
• Placed top five in a previous cross country or banks race run

The last five winners…

• Had an average official rating of 147
• Had run in at least 13 hurdle races
• Had run in a chase over at least 3m6f
• Had won over 3m1f or further - two winning over 4m
• Had run at the Cheltenham Festival before - four winning

The last 36 win and place positions

35/36 placed horses...

• Were aged eight or older; exception six-year-old Dogora in 2015

34/36 placed horses...

• Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
• Last ran no more than 120 days ago

23/35 placed horses...

• Were aged 10 or older

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last chase contested prior to the Cheltenham Cross Country chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Tiger Roll won the 2019 Cross Country Chase

For the fourth time, Grand National hero Tiger Roll romped to Cheltenham Festival victory with a comprehensive win in the 2019 Cross Country Chase.

The former Triumph Hurdle and National Hunt Chase hero was sent off the 5/4 favourite to win back-to-back cross country races and duly obliged under jockey Keith Donoghue.

4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 Cross Country Chase Result

1. Tiger Roll 5/4f
2. Josies Orders 15/2
3. Urgent De Gregaine 17/2

Moving up to challenge six obstacles from home, the Gordon Elliott-trained star took the lead at the next, before being driven clear to win by a magnificient 22 lengths.

The French-trained Urgent De Gregaine tried to follow Tiger Roll, but, as in 2018, made a late mistake and was caught on the run-in by 2016 winner Josies Orders.

Just over three weeks later, Tiger Roll went to Aintree and won the Grand National for the second successive year, carrying 11st 5lbs.

Cheltenham 2020 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 - Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper