Cross Country Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 21st, 2019

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TOP 5 CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS

• Aged eight or older
• Officially rated 134 or more
• Run in a chase over 3m6f or further
• Placed top 5 in cross country or banks race
• Run at least twice that season

Get the latest Cheltenham Cross Country Chase odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Cross Country Chase?

Only two horses made the trends short-list for the 2018 Cheltenham Cross Country Chase, but they included the emphatic winner Tiger Roll.

A festival stalwart, Tiger Roll was surprisingly long in the Cheltenham betting odds, despite filling all of the Top 5 Cross Country Chase trends, as well as boasting a Festival victory over 4m.

The other tip from the trends was default 2016 winner Josies Orders, upgraded after Any Currency was disqualifed. The 10-year-old fit the Top 5 profile, had run over hurdles at the Festival and won twice over course-and-distance.

He was also trained by top cross country operator Enda Bolger (See Key Trainer Trends below), and ridden by Nina Carberry, who had won the race four times before. However, he finished sixth this time.

Second-placed Urgent De Gregaine undoubtedly fit the trends, having won over course-and-distance a year earlier. But he lacked hurdle runs, which is a growing trend, and no French-trained horse has actual won, despite many trying.

Third The Last Samuri had not run in a cross country race before, while fourth Auvergnat had run in plenty of banks and cross country races, but he had also fallen at Cheltenham and had never won over further than 3m2f, despite plenty of tries beyond that.

KEY CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS

14-year-trends (first run 2005)

The last 14 winners…

• Were aged eight or older
• Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
• Had run at least twice that season
• Last ran no more than 117 days ago

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were officially rated 134 or higher
• Had run at least four times in the last 12 months

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged no older than 10
• Last ran at least 30 days ago
• Had run over 3m4f or further before - six winning
• Had run at Cheltenham before - the majority over fences, six had won
• Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
• Had run in at least one cross country race or banks race; exception was Rivage D'Or (2015)

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Were trained in Ireland
• Had run in at least 13 chases
• Had run in at least 13 hurdle races
• Carried no more than 11st 4lbs to win
• Had run in at least one Cheltenham cross country race before
• Placed top five in a previous cross country or banks race run

The last five winners…

• Had run in at least 13 hurdle races
• Had run in a chase over at least 3m6f
• Had won over 3m1f or further - two winning over 4m
• Had run at the Cheltenham Festival before - three winning

Did you know? Only two topweights have won the race, both were winning the Cheltenham Cross Country Chase for the second time; Garde Champetre & Balthazar King

The last 36 win and place positions

35/36 placed horses...

• Were aged eight or older
• Were officially rated 131 or higher
• Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
• Last ran no more than 120 days ago

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last chase contested prior to the Cheltenham Cross Country chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

WATCH: Racehour Cross Country Chase Preview

How Tiger Roll won the 2018 Cross Country Chase

For the third time, the versatile Tiger Roll added yet another Cheltenham Festival race to his CV with a comprehensive win in the 2018 Cross Country Chase.

The former Triumph Hurdle and National Hunt Chase hero was sent off at odds of 7/1 and always racing in a prominent position under jockey Keith Donoghue.

Moving up to challenge six obstacles from home, the Gordon Elliott-trained star took the lead at the next, before being driven clear to win by two lengths.

4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2018 Cross Country Chase Result

1. Tiger Roll 7/1
2. Urgent De Gregaine 12/1
3. The Last Samuri 11/4f

The French-trained Urgent De Gregaine travelled ominously between the final two obstacles, but a slight mistake at the last put paid to any chance the 10-year-old had.

He settled for second, pulling 11 lengths clear of third, The Last Samuri, who was running in his first cross country chase, and had earlier that season been second in the Becher Chase over the Aintree Grand National fences.

Four weeks later, he met Tiger Roll again in the Grand National itself, his Cheltenham thwarter romping to an emphatic victory at Aintree, as The Last Samuri finished his race with five of the 29 fences left to jump.

Cheltenham 2019 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 - Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper