Cross Country Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 21st, 2019

Cross Country Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS

Aged eight or older
At least seven chase starts
Run in a chase over 3m6f or further
Placed top 5 in cross country or banks race
Run at least twice that season

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Did Trends Win The Last Cross Country Chase?

With last year's winner Tiger Roll coming in to the Cross Country Chase in winning form, there could only be one trends pick.

The nine-year-old had ticked all the boxes a year earlier when romping to his first win in the race and in even better shape was sent off at 5/4f in the 2019 Cheltenham betting odds.

Second Urgent De Gregaine, second in 2018, had only run once since (144 days ago), making him much harder to shortlist on trends, but third Josies Orders did fit the bill, with several course-and-distance wins and plenty of good recent form.

The only other horse that made the trends shortlist was Auvergnat, who had been fourth in 2017 and 2018. He had gone on to win the famed La Touche Cup over the banks at the Punchestown Festival, and went on to land the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival, lining up fresh.

Unfortunately the nine-year-old went no further than 26 fences, dropping back quickly after the 23rd.

KEY CROSS COUNTRY CHASE TRENDS

Note: This cross country race was a handicap until 2016

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

Were aged eight or older
Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
Had run at least twice that season
Last ran no more than 117 days ago

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

Had an average official rating of 143
Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
Had run a minimum of seven times over fences
Had won at least one chase

Nine of the last 10 winners…

Were aged no older than 10
Last ran at least 30 days ago
Had run over 3m4f or further before - six winning
Had run at Cheltenham before - the majority over fences, six had won
Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
Had run in at least one cross country race or banks race; exception was Rivage D'Or (2015)

Eight of the last 10 winners…

Were trained in Ireland; exception Balthazar King twice
Had run in at least 13 chases
Had run in at least 13 hurdle races
Had run in at least one Cheltenham cross country race before
Placed top five in a previous cross country or banks race run

The last five winners…

Had an average official rating of 147
Had run in at least 13 hurdle races
Had run in a chase over at least 3m6f
Had won over 3m1f or further - two winning over 4m
Had run at the Cheltenham Festival before - four winning

The last 36 win and place positions

35/36 placed horses...

Were aged eight or older; exception six-year-old Dogora in 2015

34/36 placed horses...

Had run at least three times in the last 12 months
Last ran no more than 120 days ago

23/35 placed horses...

Were aged 10 or older

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last chase contested prior to the Cheltenham Cross Country chase)

Key Race	Racecourse	Dist.	Month	Winners	Placed Horses
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (Class 2)	Cheltenham	3m6f	December	Tiger Roll (2018), Josies Orders (2016), Balthazar King (2012)	Bless The Wings (2016), Any Currency (2015), Uncle Junior (2015), Wedger Party (2012)
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (Class 2)	Cheltenham	3m6f	November	Tiger Roll (2019), Cause Of Causes (2017), Balthazar King (2014)	Cantlow (2017)
P P Hogan Cross Country Chase	Punchestown	3m1f	February	Big Shu (2013)	Josies Orders (2019), Big Shu (2014), Shakervilz (2013), Garde Champetre (2011)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

Trainer	Runs	Wins	Win%	P/L	Places
Gordon Elliott	11	3	27	10.00	2
Phillip Hobbs	10	2	20	1.50	2
Michael Hourigan	5	1	20	21	2
Enda Bolger	30	1	4	-25.67	4
Willie Mullins	13	0	0	-13.00	3
Kim Bailey	5	0	0	-5.00	2

WATCH: Racehour Cross Country Chase Preview

How Tiger Roll won the 2019 Cross Country Chase

For the fourth time, Grand National hero Tiger Roll romped to Cheltenham Festival victory with a comprehensive win in the 2019 Cross Country Chase.

The former Triumph Hurdle and National Hunt Chase hero was sent off the 5/4 favourite to win back-to-back cross country races and duly obliged under jockey Keith Donoghue.

4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2019 Cross Country Chase Result

Tiger Roll 5/4f
Josies Orders 15/2
Urgent De Gregaine 17/2

Moving up to challenge six obstacles from home, the Gordon Elliott-trained star took the lead at the next, before being driven clear to win by a magnificient 22 lengths.

The French-trained Urgent De Gregaine tried to follow Tiger Roll, but, as in 2018, made a late mistake and was caught on the run-in by 2016 winner Josies Orders.

Just over three weeks later, Tiger Roll went to Aintree and won the Grand National for the second successive year, carrying 11st 5lbs.

Cheltenham 2020 Wednesday Schedule

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

14:10 RSA Novices' Chase

14:50 Coral Cup

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE

16:10 - Cross Country Handicap Chase

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 Champion Bumper

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