Dubai World Cup Betting Tips: Back Thunder To Strike Twice
Dubai World Cup Night Tips
- Back Thunder Snow to win Dubai World Cup at 5/1 with BetHard
- Back Muntazah in Godolphin Mile at 6/5 with 888Sport
- Back Almond Eye in Dubai Turf at 11/8 with 888Sport
The world's richest horse race takes place this Saturday night in Dubai and Rory Delargy finds there can only be one winner.
Founded in 1996, and held on the last Saturday in March, the Dubai World Cup is the finale on Dubai World Cup Night at Meydan, which also features four further Group 1 events for thoroughbreds.
The Dubai World Cup carries a purse of US$12 million, regaining its place as the world's richest horse race, having lost that title to the Pegasus World Cup in 2017 and 2018.
Top 3 Dubai World Cup Contenders
Capezzano - 4/1 Black Type
Capezzano was the 9½ length winner of Round 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, beating last year’s Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow, and that makes him look a big player coem Saturday night.
He didn’t really look up to this class earlier in his career, and was soundly beaten in the Godolphin Mile on last year’s card, but he has suddenly improved this year. The progress is possibly down to the fitting of a hood, which is helping him channel his energy more efficiently, and he needs respect. But the occasion and the likely pressure he will face in front will test his previously suspect character to the limit, and any cracks will be exposed remorselessly.
North America - 3/1 SportNation
North America is another who flopped at this meeting last year, finishing last in the Dubai World Cup after missing the break. He has previously beaten Thunder Snow in the same warm-up race won by Capezzano this time around, and aside from his unexplained blowout in the World Cup, he has a very solid profile for trainer Satish Seemar.
He’s well-drawn in stall three, with connections having their pick, but it’s not necessarily a big advantage to be drawn right next to another front-runner, and if he again fails to jump well, he could quickly be on the back foot, although connections are adamant that his failure to exit on terms last year was nothing more than a fluke.
Thunder Snow - 5/1 BetHard
Thunder Snow won the Dubai World Cup last year, turning the tables with North America on earlier Meydan form, and he seeks to do the same this year, having been beaten by a wide margin when second to Capezzano on his return from a four-month layoff in the Al Maktoum Challenge (Round 3).
He has work to do with that rival, but the balance of his form is much stronger than Capezzano taken as a whole, and that is also true of North America, who British racefans will recall struggling to win handicaps off marks in the 70s for Charlie Appleby a few years ago.
Best Dubai World Cup Bet:
Thunder Snow has always been a high-class performer, and he has been a winner at the highest level in every season he has raced, taking the Criterium International as a juvenile and the Prix Jean Prat as a three-year-old before his World Cup success last season.
He won from a wide draw last year, but has drifted notably in the betting after being parked wide again. That’s not entirely surprising, but the notion that a wide draw is a disadvantage is not borne out by results, with stalls 9 and 10 of 10 filling the first two spots last year, and Arrogate led home a 9-5-11-14 superfecta in 2017. Prior to that, California Chrome had won from stall 11 of 12, and yet the idea persists that high is bad.
Other World Cup Night Tips:
Goldphin Mile: Muntazah Tipped To Make All
Heavy Metal was favourite when beating Muntazah in the Godolphin Mile last year, but was heavily favoured by the track conditions, and will struggle to confirm the form against a horse who was making his debut on the surface 12 months ago.
Muntazah has won two of three subsequent starts on the dirt surface at Meydan, and eclipsed anything Heavy Metal has achieved with a stunning win in the C&D Burj Nahaar earlier in the month. He made all there, and can do so again, but is equally adept stalking the pace, and looks a banker on the card.
Dubai Turf: Clever, Bets Almond Eye
In the Dubai Turf, it’s tempting to find an each-way play against Japanese wonder mare Almond Eye, which was my initial approach, but in identifying 7/2 shot Dream Castle as the main danger, it seems to me that there is a better chance of reward backing the favourite at a generous-looking 11/8, rather than being clever with each-way terms.
Almond Eye is unbeaten since her debut, and as well as the Japanese equivalent of the 1000 Guineas and Oaks, she also smashed the course record when landing the Japan Cup in November, and looks a cut above the opposition, whose best chance appears to be a spot of impromptu cloud-seeding from the ruler of Dubai. Not likely.
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