Festival Plate Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Festival Plate Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Betting

TOP 5 FESTIVAL PLATE CHASE TRENDS

  • Won no more than 5 chases
  • Won no more than 2 handicap chases, if any
  • Carrying at least 5lb less than the top weight
  • Within 3lbs of highest chase handicap rating
  • Never won a Cheltenham chase before

Get the latest Festival Plate Handicap Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Festival Plate Handicap Chase?

On the trends last year, the Festival Plate Handicap Chase shortlist picked out three horses, including the third King's Odyssey - a generous 14/1 in the Cheltenham betting.

Aged nine, King's Odyssey had plenty of experience, including at Cheltenham, but had only won one handicap chase - a key trend across the last 15 years (see below).

He was booked to carry less than 11st too, and was rated 139, which is bang on the average handicap mark for any of the last 40 horses to finish in the first four (see placed trends below).

He fitted the place trends better than the winning trends because his handicap mark was well below his best, the same could be said for second-placed Splash Of Ginge and third Ballyalton, who were not shortlisted.

Sixth Guitar Pete was, because he was on a career-high handicap mark, and he had only won two handicap chases - including one over course-and-distance in a Key Race (see below)

The winner The Storyteller appeared to be carrying too much weight at 11st 4lb, and became the highest-rated horse to win for more than 30 years at 147.


KEY FESTIVAL PLATE HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Had never won a chase at Cheltenham before
  • Carried at least 5lb less than the top weight
  • Were officially rated no higher than 147
  • Finished in the first four in one of their last five races

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Had won no more than five chases
  • Had won no more than four handicap chases, if any
  • Were running off a career-high handicap mark, or no more than 3lbs lower
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
  • Last ran in a novice chase or handicap chase
  • Had won on a course described as galloping

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were aged 6-9
  • Had won no more than two handicap chases, 3 winning none
  • Featured sixth or lower in the weights, carrying 10st 13lb or less
  • Had won a chase over a distance of at least 2m3f - exception won over 2m2f, and placed second over further

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Had won over fences on a left-handed course
  • Had run at least three times that season, six winning
  • Last ran no more than 70 days ago
  • Were officially rated no higher than 142

The last five winners...

  • Were officially rated 140 or higher
  • Carried 10st 9lb or more

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

  • Were largely aged eight or older - 14 aged 8 exactly, 9 aged 10 or older
  • Had an average official handicap rating of 139 - two rated 150 or higher feauring
  • Had won at least one chase

39/40 placed horses

  • Had won no more than four handicap chases, 11 winning none
  • Had run up to seven times that season
  • Last ran no more than 120 days ago

38/40 placed horses

  • Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts

36/40 placed horses

  • Had run five or more times over fences

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

Key RaceDist.RacecourseMonthWinnersPlaced Finishers
BetVictor Gold Cup (G3)2m4.5fCheltenhamNovemberBallynagour (2014)Bouvreuil (2017), Kings Palace (2016), Buywise (2015)
Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (G3)2m5fCheltenhamDecemberSalut Flo (2012)Ballyalton (2018), Colour Squadron (2014), Johns Spirit (2014), Divers (2012), From Dawn To Dusk (2010)
Fairlawne Handicap Chase (G3)2m5fCheltenhamJanuaryDarna (2015)Splash Of Ginge (2018), Three Mirrors (2009
Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase (G3)2m5fCheltenhamJanuaryNoneKing’s Odyssey (2018), Tartak (2013), Mister McGoldrick (2010)
Paddy Power Chase (Grade B)3mLeopardstownDecemberNoneBeautiful Sound (2011), Notable D’Estruval (2009)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded chase contested before Festival Plate)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
David Pipe2131416.503
Venetia Williams1921166.002
Gordon Elliott41252.001

WATCH: Racehour Festival Plate Preview


How The Storyteller won 2018's Festival Plate Handicap Chase

On an incredible day for Irish trainers, The Storyteller justified 5/1 favouritism in the Festival Plate Handicap Chase, to bring up a treble for trainer Gordon Elliott and for jockey Davy Russell.

The seven-year-old was running in just his fourth chase, and taking on the Cheltenham hill for the first time, on what was the Fairyhouse winner's first handicap outing.


4.10 CHELTENHAM - 2018 Festival Plate Handicap Chase Result

  1. The Storyteller 5/1f
  2. Splash Of Ginge 25/1
  3. Kings Odyssey 14/1
  4. Ballyalton 16/1

Remarkably, he made only one late mistake, moving upsides Ballyalton into second before the last, and rallying into the lead up the run-in to win by almost two lengths, over gallant 10-year-old and course specialist Splash Of Ginge.

King's Odyssey plugged on to be a distant third, with Ballyalton weakening in to fourth, ahead of King's Socks, who lost his chance by hanging to the left.

Irish trainers saddled six of the seven winners at the Cheltenham Festival that day, winning the Festival Plate, Stayers' Hurdle, Pertemps Final, Ryanair Chase, JLT Novices' Chase, and the Mares' Novices' Hurdle.


Cheltenham 2019 Thursday Schedule

13:30 JLT Novices' Chase trends

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 - Festival Plate Handicap Chase

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends

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Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of Ireland's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

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