Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival

Jessica Lamb

February 4th, 2021

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BEST 2021 FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

• Won no more than two hurdle races
• Last ran in a hurdle race that was not a maiden
• Not set to carry topweight
• Never won a Graded race
• Never run at Cheltenham before

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail every running of this juvenile test, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the key Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle?

As tricky a Cheltenham Festival heat as you'll get, the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle trends threw up Recent Revelations, Clemencia, Tronador, and Blacko before 2020's renewal.

All three ticked all the boxes in the Top 5 trends list above, and filled all of the criteria outlined in the 10-year and 15-year trends too, but Recent Revelations had the bonus of being trained by top race trainer Gordon Elliott.

He went on to be fourth, with Clemencia in fiftth, and Tronador disappointing in ninth. Blacko was sent of 5/1 joint favourite and pulled up before the last, perhaps hampered by sticky ground.

Winner Aramax fit the profile of 2019's winner Band Of Outlaws, who carried 3lbs more than any winner in the past 11 years with 11st 8lb on his back.

His victory for Elliott perhaps signals a changing trend, and that is reflected in our revised trends for the 2021 renewal.

Second Night Edition and Saint D'oroux broke this race's most solid trend: no winner last ran in a maiden hurdle. However, they did fit other trends, so could have been considered for each-way betting.

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KEY FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends (race first run in 2005)

The last 15 winners…

• Last ran in a hurdle race, excluding maiden hurdles (the 32 runners that last ran in a maiden hurdle were all beaten)
• Had never run at Cheltenham before
• Completed their last race

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Last ran in a hurdle or a novice hurdle, not a handicap
• Had run in no more than six hurdle races
• Had won no more than two hurdle races
• Had never won a Graded race
• Did not carry topweight [racecard number one form reads: 2060F82000]

NB 9/70 runners wearing headgear finished in first four, three winning; 4/48 runners wearing a tongue tie finished in first four, only one winning.

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Finished first or second in one of their last two starts
• Last ran no more than 53 days ago
• Were not favourite in the betting

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Were hurdle race winners
• Featured fifth or lower in the weights
• Last ran no more than 32 days ago (recent form is important!)

The last 40 win and place positions

39/40 placed horses

• Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
• Ran less than 120 days ago
• Were not topweight

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last major race contested prior to the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Aramax Won 2020's Fred Winter

Trainer Gordon Elliott dominated the 2020 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, saddling winner Aramax, third Saint D'oroux and fourth Recent Revelations.

An eight-length winner at Naas last time out, Aramax cruised to lead at the final hurdle, and held off a late challenge from Night Edition to win by a length.

4.50 CHELTENHAM - 2020 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Result

1. Aramax 15/2
2. Night Edition 16/1
3. Saint D'oroux 14/1
4. Recent Revelations 14/1

The win was Elliott's third in this Cheltenham race, and helped owner JP McManus to a four-timer on the day, with jockey Mark Walsh recording the fourth Festival win of his career.

Saint D'oroux had led turning in, but could not match the first two, and finished three lengths down, just holding off Recent Revelations' charge by a nose.

In a blanket finish for the minor placings, just one and a half lengths separated Saint D'oroux and eighth-placed Gealach.

Cheltenham 2021 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase