Marsh Novices' Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting
BEST 2021 MARSH NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS
- Aged six or seven
- Won one of last three starts
- Last ran in a Graded novice chase
- Had won left-handed
- Officially rated 144+
Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Marsh Novices' Chase? Follow These Trends:
Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Marsh Novices' Chase, known as the JLT Novices' Chase up until the 2020 renewal.
We've analysed in detail every running of the Cheltenham Festival's newest novices' chase, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.
What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Marsh Novices' Chase.
Scroll down to read full details of all the key Marsh Novices' Hurdle trends to follow, beyond the top five.
Did Trends Win Last Year's Marsh Novices' Chase?
Shortlisted via the Marsh Novices' Chase trends last year were Itchy Feet, Faugheen, and Midnight Shadow - Faugheen finishing second in the newest Cheltenham Festival novices' chase.
The Olly Murphy-trained Itchy Feet made the Marsh Novices' Chase shortlist by winning a ‘Key Race’ (see below), the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown and cantering to the top of the Cheltenham betting. Midnight Shadow finished second that day, his first defeat over 2m4-5f in four outings.
They ticked all the key trends, including all of the Top 5 listed above, which Faugheen fell short of by being 12.
But the 2015 Champion Hurdle winner was a unique case, who could not be overlooked, having gone unbeaten in three chase runs over 2m3f or further, including two Grade 1s, his latest 'Key Race' the Flogas Novices' Chase at Leopardstown.
His 10-length beating of Samcro was what knocked the Marsh Novices' Chase winner out of the trends selection. Like Faugheen, his older age (8), could be over-looked as his only other run at Cheltenham at been victory in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle.
But no other winner at that time had been beaten more than a short-head in their last run before Cheltenham, barring Black Hercules, who had fallen.
What the trends did not consider was the affect of Samcro's wind surgery after his defeat - and the Gordon Elliott factor (he's now 2/3 in this race!).
Second Melon was also discounted due to being well-beaten last time out. He had also never won over further than 2m1f, or at Cheltenham.
KEY MARSH NOVICES' CHASE TRENDS
10-year-trends (race first run 2011)
The last 10 winners…
- Last ran at least 32 days ago
- Won one of their last three starts
- Had three to five starts that season
- Had run in two to five novice chases
- Had won on a left-handed course
- Had three or more wins on a galloping track
- Last ran in a Graded novice chase
- Had run at Cheltenham before - six winning
- Had won at least once racing over a distance between 2m3f-2m6f
Nine of the last 10 winners...
- Were aged six or seven
- Finished in the first two last time out; exception Black Hercules (2016) fell
- Had won at least one Graded race - seven had won Grade 1s
The last 27 win and place positions
27/27 placed horses
- Won one of their last three starts
26/27 placed horses
- Had two or more wins on a galloping track
- Last ran in a Graded race
25/27 placed horses
- Were Irish or French-bred
KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)
(Last Graded race contested prior to the Marsh Novices' Chase)
|Key Race||Racecourse||Winners||Place Finishers|
|Neville Hotels Novice Chase (G1)||Leopardstown||Shattered Love (2018)||None|
|Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (G1)||Sandown||Defi Du Seuil (2019)||Lostintranslation (2019), Terrefort (2018), Top Notch (2017), Bristol De Mai (2016), Changing Times (2013)|
|Novice Chase (G2) (G3 until 2017) (discontinued)||Leopardstown||Yorkhill (2017), Vautour (2015), Sir Des Champs (2012)||None|
|Flogas Novice Chase (G1)||Leopardstown||None||Faugheen (2020), Disko (2017), Apache Stronghold (2015)|
|Irish Arkle (G1)||Leopardstown||Benefficient (2013), Noble Price (2011)||Melon (2020), Mengli Khan (2019)|
KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)
How Samcro Won 2020's Marsh Novices' Chase
Cheltenham Festival glory went to Samcro in the 2020 Marsh Novices' Chase, as the eight-year-old won a thrilling duel with Melon by just a nose.
Jockey Davy Russell first poked his head in front turning in, but the 4-1 shot was found wanting when Patrick Mullins pressed go on long-time leader Melon.
1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2020 MARSH NOVICES' CHASE RESULT
- Samcro 4/1
- Melon 14/1
- Faugheen 3/1f
Two fences out Samcro was being ridden, Faugheen loomed and Melon was in control, but the leader messed up the last fence and Samcro pounced.
The win was a second in the Grade 1 for trainer Gordon Elliott, who denied Willie Mullins a fifth Marsh Novices' Chase win.
Faugheen finished a clear third, a length behind the first two and three and a quarter lengths clear of Mister Fisher.
Cheltenham 2020 Thursday Schedule
13:30 - Marsh Novices' Chase
14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends
14:50 Ryanair Chase trends
15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends
16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends
16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends
17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends
Recommended Betting Sites
118+. T&C Apply
218+. New Customers only. Bet €10* & Get £€30* in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between €5* and €10* to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
318+ T&C's Apply
418+. T&C Apply
5New customers online only. Place your first bet on racing pools for a minimum of £/€5 and win or lose you will receive £/€20 Tote Credit. £/€20 Tote Credit rewarded as £/€10 redeemable against racing bets only and £/€10 redeemable against UK and Irish placepot bets only. Tote Credit cannot be withdrawn, exchanged, or substituted and expires after 7 days. Qualifying bet is the first racing pool bet added to the bet-slip. Ten to Follow, virtual and football bets do not qualify. Totewin will be the qualifying bet when a Totewin and a Toteplace bet are struck at the same time. UK & ROI customers only. 18+. Full T&Cs apply. BeGambleaware.org
618+ | ΙΕ new customers only | Max €50 free bet | Max €5 Voucher for Lightning Roulette | Min €10 bet | Min odds 7/10 (1.70) | Bonus Code: BET10WIN50 | Free bet stake not returned | Offer valid only for the Cheltenham Festival races until 17.03.2023 | Free bet valid for 7 days | T&Cs Apply
718+. T&C's apply.
818+. T&C Apply
918+. T&C Apply
1018+. T&C Apply
1118+ New Customers only. Deposit, opt in and place a €10 qualifying bet at odds of 2.00 or greater within 7 days of opening a new account; excludes cashed out bets. Receive 2x €10 Free Sports Bets, valid on set events only at odds 2.00 or greater, expires in 7 days. Plus a €10 Game Show Bonus, selected games, wager 40x to withdraw a max of €250. T&Cs Apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.
1218+. T&C's apply
1318+. T&C Apply
14Min deposit £/€/$10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £/€/$10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager the bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Casino Bonus expires after 60 days • Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & Full T&C’s apply.
15IRE/NI new customers only. Min Deposit €/£10. Min stake €/£10. Min odds Evs. Free Bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. Free Bets expire in 7 days. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP address only. Account & Payment method restrictions. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&Cs apply.
1618+ New Players only. For free bet wagering requirements and minimum odds read T&C’s. www.begambleaware.org Terms Apply
1718+. T&C Apply
1818+ New UK+IRE Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first €5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4x €5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cashout, restrictions + T&Cs apply.
1918+. New customers only. Min deposit €10, maximum bonus that can be awarded in this promotion is €100. T&C's apply.
2018+ Ts&Cs Apply
21Welcome Bonus Bet - Bet €10 Get €15 terms. This offer is for new sports customers only and is available once per household. Max. Bonus Bet amount €15. Minimum wagering on the sport to activate the Bonus Bet is €10 (which can be achieved from a Min deposit of €10). Offer valid only to customers wagering on sport €10 or more and make a qualifying bet in accordance with the Bonus Bet Specific Terms and Conditions below. 1st Place Prize: €1000. Prizes granted up to 48h after the tournament ends. Bonus Bet does not contribute towards the leaderboard. Click to see full T&Cs
2218+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit,: €10, max €10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Neteller,Skrill and Paypal not eligible. T&Cs apply
2318+. T&C's apply
24New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. Full T&Cs apply. 18+. Play Responsibly www.begambleaware.org.
2518+ New Players only. Gamble responsibly. www.begambleaware.org
2618+. New Customers only, Min deposit €20. min odds 1.5. T &Cs apply.
2718+. T&C's apply
2818+. T&C Apply
2918+. T&C Apply
3019+. New Customers only. Minimum deposit €20 & minimum odds 1.50. T&C's apply.
3118+. T&C Apply
3218+. T&C Apply
33New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of $/€10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: $/€200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms Apply. 18+ #AD
34New Players Only. Min £/€/$10 qualifying bets, stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £/€/$ 20, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £/€/$200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill deposits. Full Terms apply.
3518+ New players only. Opt-in Required. Min stake £/€/$ 10, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wagering the winnings from the free bet. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £/€/$ 200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Excluded Skrill deposits. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Full Terms Apply.
3618+. T&C Apply
3718+. T&C Apply
39New Players Only. Minimum stake $/€/£ 10, minimum odds1.5, stake not returned.10X wagering the winnings from the free bet. Wagering occurs from real balance first. Wagering requirement is calculated on bonus bets only, wagering starts from real funds.Free bet is valid for 7 Days from issue. Max conversion: $/€/£ 20. Excluded Skrill deposits. Withdrawal requests voids all active/pending bonuses. Full Terms Apply.
40NEW CUSTOMERS ONLY. MAX ONE €10 FREE BETS. QUALIFYING BETS MUST BE PLACED AT ODDS OF 1/1 OR GREATER. PAID AS BONUS TOKEN WITH MIN 4/5 ODDS REQ. SKRILL, NETELLER & PAYPAL NOT ELIGIBLE T&CS APPLY. 18+
4118+. T&C Apply
4218+. T&C's apply.
4318+. T&C Apply
4418+. T&C Apply