Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 18th, 2021

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BEST 2021 MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

• First three last time out
• Won no more than 2 hurdles
• Placed or won over further than 2m4f
• Carrying 11st 3lbs or more
• Aged five or six

Betting On 2021's Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of the Cheltenham Festival's finale, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, just as they did last year when circling Early Doors.

Scroll down to find out how the trends picked him last year, and read full details of all the key Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle trends, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Martin Pipe at Cheltenham?

On trends, the 2020 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle shortlist included the second, and fourth home, in a competitive 23-runner affair.

The Gordon Elliott-trained Column Of Fire when straight on the trends list as the stable's shortest of four runners in the Cheltenham betting.

Like all five trends picks, he had won a hurdle race, but no more than two, and no handicaps. He was also rated 143, most winners of this race boasting ratings in excess of 138, and trained by one of the race's most succesful trainers.

Unfortunately, he fell at the last when making his challenge.

Willie Mullins's first string Five O'Clock also fit the trends well, having run in six hurdle races, including three that season, and no handicaps. He had also won a 2m5f Grade 3 last time out. Having Graded form is very desirable, according to trends, as is a rating in the 140s, which he also had.

He lost his place badly early on, nearly unseating Conor McNamara and never recovered, finishing seventh.

Like Five O'Clock, Front View boasted Grade 3 form over 2m5f. He had also won three hurdle races, but no handicaps, was rated 139 and trained by the 2019-winning yard of Joseph O'Brien.

He made costly mistakes at the last two flights, and finished 12th, missing a shoe.

Fourth Happygolucky was a confident trends selection having placed in two Grade 2s and won over 2m6f. He had run three times that season, so didn't lack for fitness, and had never run in a handicap before, but boasted an attractive rating of 137.

It was a concern that she had not run for 98 days - 20 days more than any winner before her - but she had won after a 328-day break.

Second Pileon also fit the trends well, though both his stamina and class were less proven. He had won two hurdles, including by 20 lengths over 2m4f last time out, and had never run in a handicap, but had also never been tried in a Graded race. His rating of 138 though showed that he had the class to win this, and he was denied by a short-head.

Winner Indefatigable was just too exposed on paper, but perhaps because she had been running mainly in mares' events, the handicapper had underestimated her.

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KEY MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE TRENDS

Two key notes that will help your Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle trends analysis are: there have only been 12 runnings of the race, and it is limited to horses rated 145 or lower - 140 before 2012.

That means the handicap is highly compressed with bottom-weight carrying only 8-10lbs less than topweight. In this scenario, topweights can do well. There can often be more than one, but the form of the best-finishing topweight reads: U120F6700111

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Carried 11st 1lb or more
• Had won 1-4 times over hurdles
• Had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles - most won none
• Last ran between 22-77 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Carried 11st 3lb or more
• Had run at least once over 2m4f or further
• Had won or been placed over further than 2m4f - four won
• Finished in the first three last time out - six winning
• Were Irish or French bred

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Were aged five or six
• Had run no more than eight times over hurdles
• Had won no more than two hurdle races
• Had run at least three times that season
• Had won 1-2 races that season
• Were officially rated 138 or higher

The last eight winners…

• Were trained in Ireland, or by Paul Nicholls or Paul Webber
• Had run in a Graded hurdle - three won Grade 3s.
• Had run in no more than 4 handicap hurdles - winning no more than 1

The last 40 win and place positions

40/40 placed horses

• Were aged no older than eight

39/40 placed horses

• Finished in the first four in one of their last three starts; exception Great White Shark (2020)
• Had run up to three times in the last 90 days

KEY RACE TRENDS (11 years)

(Last Graded race contested before Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Indefatigable won 2020's Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

Indefatigable was fifth and ridden approaching the final flight in the 2019 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, but went on to win by a short-head

Like all his rivals, jockey Rex Dingle was hard at work on Indefatible over the last hurdle. It was anyone's race as Column Of Fire, seeking to give trainer Gordon Elliott a third win, crashed out.

5.30 CHELTENHAM - 2020 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Result

1. Indefatigable 25/1
2. Pileon 9/1
3. Great White Shark 40/1
4. Happygolucky 25/1

Pileon took a clear lead then, the pack distanced, including Indefatigable, but when Dingle got his mount on the inside rail, he took off up the hill, catching Pileon just in time to win in a photo-finish.

Trained by Paul Webber, the seven-year-old became the first winner not trained in Ireland since Attaglance won for Malcolm Jefferson in 2012.

With Pileon second for British trainer Philip Hobbs, third Great White Shark finished best of the Irish, representing Willie Mullins with a neck win over the Kim Bailey-trained Happygolucky.

Elliott failed to get a placing by a neck also, The Bosses Oscar taking a troubled route from the last to the line, and just failing to catch Happygolucky.

Cheltenham 2021 Friday Schedule

13:30 Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Mares Chase - NEW RACE

17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle