National Hunt Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

National Hunt Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRENDS

  • Run at least four times in last 12 months
  • Run at least three times in novice chases
  • Run over at least 3m before - preferably won
  • Finished in the first five last time out
  • Officially rated 139 or more

Get the latest National Hunt Chase Odds here

Secure Trusted Verified
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of Ireland's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of Ireland's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

Did Trends Win Last Year's Cheltenham Gold Cup?

The National Hunt Chase trends drew up a shortlist of three horses, including the Cheltenham betting favourite Jury Duty, who unfortunately fell late on in the Festival's longest race.

Mossback and Ms Parfois were also on the shortlist the latter taking second, among only six finishers from the 16-runner field. Mossback, a faller at the 18th when still in contention, had finished second in a ‘Key Race’ (see below) race for the 4m test, the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan, while Ms Parfois had been second in another.

All three trends picks had ticked the 'Top 5' boxes, which Rathvinden did not as he had failed to finish his last two starts - both in Grade 1s at Leopardstown.


KEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Were aged up to 10-years-old
  • Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
  • Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
  • Had run at least three times in a novice chase
  • Finished in the first two in one of their last 10 starts

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Had run over at least 3m before, 9/10 winners winning at least once
  • Had run at least three times over fences, three of the last four running 10 times
  • Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
  • Had two or more starts that season
  • Were offficially rated 127 or more

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Last ran no more than 78 days ago
  • Finished in the first five last time out

Eight of the last 10 winners…

  • Were aged 6-8
  • Had won a chase before
  • Had won that season, running at least four times
  • Had run at Cheltenham before, two winning
  • Were officially rated 139 or more

Seven of the last 10 winners…

  • Finished in the first three last time out, four winning
  • Last ran no more than 47 days ago
  • Were officially rated 143 or more

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

  • Were officially rated 127 or more
  • Had run in at least two novice chase

29/30 placed horses

  • Had three or more starts in past 12 months
  • Were running within 90 days of their last start

28/30 placed horses

  • Were officially rated 133+

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the National Hunt Chase)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Reynoldstown Novice Chase (G2)AscotMinella Rocco (2016)Ms Parfois (2018)
Ten Up Novice Chase (G2)NavanNoneHaymount (2017), Measureofmydreams (2016), Tofino Bay (2013), Four Commanders (2012)
January Novice Chase (Class 2)CheltenhamTricky Trickster (2009)Sizing Tennessee (2018)

KEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE TRAINERS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Gordon Elliott 7 3 43 25.00 -
Willie Mullins 13 2 15 -4.25 3
Alan King 9 1 11 0.00 1

How Rathvinden Won 2018's National Hunt Chase

With the well-backed favourite Jury Duty struggling before unseating three out, it was left to Ms Parfois and Sizing Tennessee to fight out the 2018 National Hunt Chase.

Going head-to-head, as they had for much of the contest, the pair jumped the second-last together, but were stalked all the while by the Patrick Mullins-ridden Rathvinden - a 10-year-old, who had been on the go since August.


4.50 CHELTENHAM - 2018 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE RESULT

  1. Rathvinden 9/2
  2. Ms Parfois 11/2
  3. Sizing Tennessee 8/1

The hardy Willie Mullins in-mate joined the lead pair at the last fence and pulled out extra up the hill, to assert close home, prevailing by half a length over Ms Parfois, Sizing Tennessee taking third.

The win was a third for Mullins on the day, Footpad having won the Arkle Novices' Chase and Benie Des Deux the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle, both under Ruby Walsh.


Cheltenham 2019 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 - National Hunt Novices' Chase

Recommended Betting Sites

Secure Trusted Verified
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of Ireland's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Advertiser Disclosure
Every online gambler deserves a safe and fair place to play. Our mission at Gambling.com is to create a safe online environment for players through free, impartial and independent reviews of Ireland's best online gambling companies so that you can play with confidence and security. All ratings and reviews are made independently of the operator by our team of gaming experts and with every company being fully licensed they can be trusted to offer fair play. We accept compensation from the companies advertised on this page and this may affect the brand positioning. We endeavour to continuously update this list so we can bring you the most current sites and the best available offers but we cannot review every site in the market.
Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

Betting Strategy Articles

Betting Navigation

Latest Betting Strategy

Betting Guides

Country Guide

DISCLAIMER: Online Wagering is illegal in some Jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to check your local regulations before playing online. GDC Trading Ltd takes no responsibility for your actions.
© 2011-2019 GDC Trading Limited. All Rights Reserved. Gambling.com is a registered trademark of GDC Trading Limited.
Terms and Conditions  |   Privacy Policy

Asset 4AndroidGET IT ONGraphicfacebookIcon/Mobile/Menu CloseIcon/PinDownload_on_the_App_Store_Badge_US-UK_RGB_blk_4SVG_092917twitter