We went 2-2 with our over-under picks in Week 9, as a garbage-time touchdown in the Atlanta Falcons-Washington Redskins game cost us a winning week.
Let’s see if we can find some winners on the board this week for NFL betting fans as we examine the Week 10 totals.
Over/Under Total: 54 with Karamba
We’re dealing with a really high total in this game because it involves the Saints. They scored 45 points last week against the Los Angeles Rams and 30 at the Minnesota Vikings. On the season, they’ve scored at least 30 points or more in six of their eight games.
However, this feels like a spot where they might have a bit of a letdown. After a few big games, now they’re back on the road facing a Cincinnati Bengals team that’s been struggling. It’s hard to see the Saints being as emotionally charged up for this game as they for last week’s affair.
As for the Bengals, we’ve seen their offense cool off after a hot start. They averaged 31.5 points per game in their first four contests. That number has dropped to 23.8, which includes the 37 they scored last week against the league’s worst defense. Missing star wideout A.J. Green will hurt the total in this spot too.
The under is 10-3 in the Bengals last 13 home games where the total closed at 49.5 or higher. I expect another under in this spot. Bet it with Karamba.
Over/Under Total: 51.5 with 888Sport
This total seems a bit high for a Redskins game. Taking a look back on their season, only one of their games has gone above 52 points (although last week landed right on 52). The strength of this team is their defense and their offense just plods along.
Of course, the reason the total is so high is given the opponent. Four of the Bucs’ last five games have gone above 52 points. However, all of those opponents – the Panthers, Bengals, Falcons and Bears – have explosive weapons on offense with quality offensive lines. The Redskins don’t have that as four of their five starting offensive linemen should be out.
Look for the Redskins to dictate the pace as their offense won’t light it up and their defense will do just enough to keep the Bucs from scoring in bunches. This should be a game that ends up in the 40s. Take the under with 888Sport.
Over/Under Total: 45 with Betfair
There are 16 teams in the NFC. All four NFC East teams average fewer points than the Detroit Lions, but among the 12 NFC teams not located in the NFC East, the Lions have the second-lowest points-per-game average – higher only than the Arizona Cardinals.
The Chicago Bears have allowed fewer points through nine weeks than any other NFC team except the Dallas Cowboys.
The Bears have given up only 153 points. Khalil Mack has been a transformative and highly impactful figure for this defense, and while he’s been out the last two weeks, he’s expected back on Sunday. He’ll be licking his chops at sacking Matt Stafford, who took 10 sacks last week.
The Lions have scored just 23 total points in their last two games while the Bears have allowed a total of just 19 points in their last two. The Lions still don’t have a reliable running game and going on the road, into the cold with a bad offensive line isn’t a recipe for points. Take the under with Betfair.
Over/Under Total: 47 with 888Sport
It’s hard not to notice that the Dolphins offense has tapered off of late. On the season, they’re averaging 20.8 points per game on the season (24th in the NFL) but they averaged 25.0 points per game during their season-opening three-game winning streak and have averaged 18.7 points per game since.
The running game isn’t as effective as they averaged 106.8 rushing yards per game in their first six and are down to 95.7 since. That puts added pressure on the passing game, which is currently run by Brock Osweiler. He’s cooled off a lot after throwing three touchdowns in his first start against the Chicago Bears. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the last two games.
I look for this to be a one-sided game where the Packers play with a lead and protect it, and the Dolphins do little on offense. As a result, I’d bet the under at 888Sport in this spot.
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