As we take a look at the Week 7 card, you’ll notice that I’m mostly tempted by favorites. I’ll be counting on three of the four teams to cover at least four points but I’m also taking the biggest dog of the week to cover. Here’s a look at my Week 7 ATS picks:
You’ll probably find a lot of people liking the Jets as a home dog in this spot. The Vikings have looked shaky this year while the Jets have won two straight while scoring 76 points in the process. However, I do like the Vikings to get the job done for a number of reasons.
For starters, the Jets three wins have happened mostly because they’ve run the ball well in their wins and won the turnover battle. They have forced 10 turnovers in their three wins. They have just five in their other three wins.
The Vikings have just nine turnovers on the year – three of which came in the loss to the Buffalo Bills – so they mostly take care of the ball. They also only allow 3.9 yards per carry, which is the seventh-best mark in the NFL.
As long as the Vikings aren’t sloppy, they should find a way to win and cover here.
There is no question that I have some concerns here laying seven points with the Indianapolis Colts. They’re just one of three teams that allows more than 30 points per game on defense, which is awful. They’re also just 1-5, which is among the worst records in the NFL.
However, the Bills average a pathetic 12.7 points per game on offense. And remember, much of that was with Josh Allen under center; he’s out for weeks and the Bills ended up announcing Derek Anderson to start, who isn’t much better than Nathan Peterman and has only been with the team for about 10 days.
The Colts have played a very difficult schedule so far as each of their six opponents are either .500 or better. They’ll appreciate facing a weakling for once.
There’s no question that a lot of people will love the Rams on the moneyline and in teasers this week, but we have to pump the brakes a little bit. Yes, they should win but covering double digits could be tricky.
To start, the Rams are a bit banged up. It hasn’t caught up to them yet but they’re without Aqib Talib and now Cooper Kupp. They also saw Michael Brockers and Matt Longacre leave Sunday’s game. Kicker Greg Zuerlein is also still out.
Secondly, this is the Rams third straight road game. They’ve won their first two road games by two (at Seattle) and three (at Denver). It’s a lot of traveling for them and I expect them to be a bit worn down.
Lastly, the 49ers showed that they can be competitive. They nearly won in Green Bay on Monday Night Football. The Packers needed a miracle and that’s with the 49ers losing the turnover battle 2-0. Even on their worst days, they nearly covered the spread we see here vs Kansas City. If they take care of the ball, they’ll keep this within the spread.
The Jaguars have looked awful in their losses to Tennessee, Kansas City and Dallas, but looked solid in their wins over the Giants, Patriots and the Jets. Which team will show up against Houston? It might be hard to say.
However, Houston has played three straight very close games against average teams: Indianapolis, Dallas and Buffalo. The Texans have scored 19 and 20 points in their last two games respectively, but the 19 points came in overtime against Dallas – Houston posted just 16 offensive points in regulation time in that game.
Last Sunday against Buffalo, Houston’s winning points were on a pick-six, so the 20-13 win was a game in which the Texans’ offense scored just 13 points in regulation. That’s the kind of offense Jacksonville should demolish. The Jaguars are still ninth-best in the NFL in points allowed.
It is hard to see Jacksonville remaining bad and even harder to imagine the Texans winning four straight games with such an inconsistent offense.
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