After an incredible set of games in Week 4, it’s now time for NFL betting fans to flip the calendar to October and move into Week 5. Let’s take a closer look at some of the best totals to bet on the board, starting with the Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions NFC North matchup, which should be a high-scoring affair.
Both offenses have been struggling, right in the middle of the NFL in scoring averages per game. However, this is a climate-controlled setting in Ford Field. Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford will be slinging passes all over the yard. Both teams average over 268 passing yards per game and are likely to attack the opposing secondary all game long. And for the Packers in particular, they should feast on the Lions run defense, which is 30th in the NFL in yards per carry.
If the Packers can run the ball, keep the pressure off of Rodgers and open up play-action passes, they’ll be in the four-touchdown range in this contest. As for the Packers, while they shut out the Buffalo Bills last week, they had given up an average of 27.7 points per game prior to that. Look for this game to wind up in the 27-24 or 30-27 type of range, which means we should hit the over.
This game feels like an under. On one hand, we’ve got the Jets, who are struggling mightily on offense. They can’t seem to run the ball effectively and they’ve lost confidence in Sam Darnold. Everything is very conservative in terms of their offense. He’s completed less than 50% of his passes over the last two weeks and now he faces the Broncos, which is one of the better defenses in the NFL.
As for Denver, this is a team that is also challenged offensively. Case Keenum hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 1. On top of that, we can expect them to be a bit flat after such an emotional game on Monday Night Football against a rival.
The Broncos and Jets both average between 21 and 23 points, and this game has the feel of a 20-17 contest much more than a 27-24 game. Denver playing on the East Coast will probably hurt the Broncos’ offensive output as well. This should be an ugly game which goes under.
At first blush, the instinct might be to expect an under in this spot. After all, it’s a couple of teams known to have strong defenses. However, we really haven’t seen that to be the case from either side this year.
The Vikings defense held the San Francisco 49ers to 16 points in Week 1 but has allowed at least 29 in each of the three subsequent weeks. As for the Eagles, they were quite lucky to hold the Indianapolis Colts to 16 points in Week 3 (the Colts were stopped in the red zone multiple times) but they gave up 26 to Tennessee this past week and 27 to Tampa Bay in Week 2.
Moreover, these are two teams that know each other well. This will be the third time they’re squaring off in the last three years, including the NFC Championship Game last year where the Eagles rolled to a 38-7 win.
Aside from the Bills game, the Vikings have scored 24 or more each week and we’re expecting about the same in this one. The Eagles – especially at home – should be in the same vicinity as well, which gets us over.
The Saints are third in the NFL in scoring, averaging 34.3 points per game. The Redskins average only 21.3 points per game, but it remains that if these teams hit their scoring averages, you will get a game with 55 total points. This game is also in the Superdome where offenses operate in conditions conducive to a lot of scoring. The Redskins’ defense has played well this season but New Orleans typically offers the kind of test which even very good defenses often can’t pass. The Saints average just over 313 passing yards per game, and that will be very difficult for Washington to keep up with.
When the Saints defense is on the field, it’s hard to know what we’ll get. They’re coming off a good week where they only allowed 18 points but they gave up 48 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 37 to the Atlanta Falcons and 18 to the Cleveland Browns, who left a ton of points on the board with missed field goals and extra points. The Redskins – especially off a bye – are effective enough on offense where they should be around the 25-point range. That’ll get us over.