The Dallas Cowboys crushed the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6. The Miami Dolphins – with Brock Osweiler – beat the Chicago Bears outright as a seven-point dog.
What makes NFL betting fun – and challenging -- you never know where a moneyline surprise might come from. We’ve got one big upset pegged this week as we’re looking at you, the New York Giants. Could they really pull it off?
I’m going to take a flier with one of the bigger longshots of the week: the New York Giants.
The bottom line here is that the Falcons are just not a very good team. They shouldn’t be laying 6.5 in this spot. Sure, the Giants were embarrassed on Thursday Night Football, but keep in mind that Atlanta is just 2-4 yet they’ve played four home games already (no team has played more).
The Falcons nearly lost to Tampa Bay at home last week. Their defense has allowed an average of 37.5 points per game over the last four weeks. They’ve asked the offense to shoulder the load but keep in mind that receivers Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley were injured last week.
Dan Quinn is hopeful that they play but that could take a bite out of the passing game. The team also put running back Devonta Freeman on injured reserve, so he’s out. Tevin Coleman is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the season.
This is not a good team and they could be missing a lot this week. The Giants aren’t great but they still have weapons. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a strong bounce-back effort from them as they’ve had 10 days to prepare.
The Falcons are giving up 5.1 yards per carry (29th in the NFL) and allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 104.6 quarterback rating (28th in the NFL). The Giants have potential to really look good for a week.
I really think this is the week that the Bucs get off the mat.
For starters, let’s take a look at who they’ve played: New Orleans, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Atlanta. Four of those teams went to the playoffs last year and the other was the Bears, who have played well to start the year. Now the Bucs should get a bit of an easier contest against the Browns.
The Bucs weakness on defense is their pass defense, but the Browns are 23rd in passing yards per game. Also, their receiving corps is banged up badly. The Browns have also given up the most sacks in the NFL (26). They’ll have a tough time exploiting that area.
As for the Bucs, their offense has been pretty explosive throughout the year. Cleveland’s defense is 28th in yards per game and 20th in points per game. Tampa Bay should get its third win of the season given the opponent here.
This is a game both teams need to have, but I lean with the Eagles in this spot. They’re coming off their most impressive win of the season and they’ll have had 10 days to prepare. Yes, the Eagles are 3-3, but their losses have all been by six or less with two being by a field goal or less.
In the games they’ve lost, they’ve given up 10 sacks, but Carolina is not a team that has gotten to the quarterback a lot. They have just 12 sacks on the year (tied for 22nd).
On the other side, the Panthers rely on their ground game to do the heavy lifting on offense. However, the Eagles run defense is allowing just 79.8 rushing yards per game – the second-best mark in the NFL.
The Cowboys just dismantled the Jacksonville Jaguars – last year’s AFC runner-up – in Week 6. They have the second-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing an average of only 17.2 points per game and they are allowing only 90.7 rushing yards per game.
In the three games that the Redskins have won, Adrian Peterson has run for at least 96 yards. In the two losses, the Redskins have a total of 109 rushing yards.
This has the makings of a defensive, grind-it-out type of game. I think Dallas and their underrated defense are better equipped to succeed in that setting.
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