Champion Hurdle Trends – Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

January 4th, 2019

Champion Hurdle Trends – Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS

Won in last three runs
Won racing left-handed twice
Won on galloping track
Run at least twice that season
Last ran no more than 80 days ago

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Did Trends Win The Last Champion Hurdle?

On the trends, the 2019 Champion Hurdle shortlist consisted of Apple's Jade, Buveur D’Air, Melon and Sharjah - just one of that foursome filling the podium in the Cheltenham Festival's first championship race.

It was a rare trends bust for the Champion Hurdle as winner Espoir D'Allen hit two huge negative stats; no Grade 1 win and aged five. He did score well on trends otherwise, but could not be shortlisted for the win.

All-conquering Apple's Jade and two-time winner Buveur D'Air topped that list, the Willie Mullins-trained Sharjah coming in next, having all run in ‘Key Race Trends' (see below) contests. Melon had run in those races too, but was a tentative selection this time, having shown no form all season, but boasting that 2018 second and first-time cheekpieces.

He finished second again, Buveur D'Air falling and bringing down Sharjah, and Apple's Jade taking sixth in her second disappointing run at Cheltenham.

KEY CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
Had won on three or more occasions on a galloping track
Had won two or more races left-handed
Were running within 80 days of their last start
Finished in the first four last time out

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

Were aged between six and nine
Had run no more than twice since last winning
Had run in a Grade 1 contest
Had five or more career runs over hurdles
Last ran between 26 and 78 days ago
Had run at least twice that season - winning at least once

Nine of the last 10 winners…

Were officially rated 162+
Were aged no older than eight
Had won, or were beaten no more than four lengths, in their race before the Champion Hurdle
Wore no headgear

Eight of the last 10 winners…

Won last time out
Had run at Cheltenham before
Had won a Grade 1 - exceptions Espoir D'Allen & Rock On Ruby

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

Were officially rated 154+
Had run in five or more hurdle races
Had won on a left-handed track
Had won on a ‘very undulating’ track

29/30 placed horses

Were officially rated 156+
Had two or more seasonal starts to their name
Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
Finished in the first four last time out

28/30 placed horses

Had last run no more than 90 days before the Champion Hurdle
Had last run in a hurdle race

26/30 placed horses

Includes officially the highest-rated horse(s) in the race - five winning, five finishing third (the exceptions fell, finished fourth and sixth)

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Champion Hurdle)

Key Race	Racecourse	Dist.	Month	Winners	Place Finishers
Christmas Hurdle (G1)	Kempton	2m	December	Buveur D'Air (2018), Faugheen (2015), Rock On Ruby (2012), Binocular (2010)	My Tent Or Yours (2017 & 2014), The New One (2014), Rock On Ruby (2013), Countrywide Flame (2013) Overturn (2012)
Irish Champion Hurdle (G1)	Leopardstown	2m	January	Hurricane Fly (2013 & 2011), Jezki (2014)	Melon (2019 & 2018), Mick Jazz (2018), Petit Mouchoir (2017), Nichols Canyon (2016), Arctic Fire (2015), Hurricane Fly (2015 & 2012)
Limestone Lad Hurdle (G3)	Naas	2m	January	Espoir D'Allen (2019)	None
Champion Hurdle Trial (G2)	Haydock	1m7 1/2f	January	None	Silver Streak (2019)
Fighting Fifth Hurdle (G1)	Newcastle	2m	Nov/Dec	None	Peddlers Cross (2011)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

Trainer	Runs	Wins	Win %	P/L %	Places
Willie Mullins	21	4	19	-9.33	6
Nicky Henderson	23	3	13	-5.33	5

WATCH: Racehour Champion Hurdle Preview

How Buveur D'Air Won 2018's Champion Hurdle

It was billed as a battle of the mares, but became a coming of age of 16/1 shot Espoir D'Allen, as he romped to a record 15-length win - the biggest Champion Hurdle-winning margin in history.

Just the second five-year-old to win the race, Espoir D'Allen had never been to Cheltenham before, but had been tested in Grade 1 company as a four-year-old. His campaign had been more lowkey since, so it was no surprise to see his odds so big.

3.30 CHELTENHAM – 2019 CHAMPION HURDLE RESULT

Espoir D'Allen 16/1
Melon 20/1
Silver Streak 80/1

Owner JP McManus had expected to win a third successive Champion Hurdle with Buveur D'Air, knocked off the favourite's perch by mares Apple's Jade and Laurina, but when he fell at the third hurdle, the race changed.

Melon, wearing first-time cheekpieces, had led the field in a change of tactics that bothered front-runner Apple's Jade. Her chance was long gone two flights out when Mark Walsh made his move on Espoir D'Allen.

He swung past Melon to lead and drew away to win by that impressive margin, 80/1 chance Silver Streak staying on best of the rest to be third, just a neck behind Melon. Laurina was fourth, leading home fellow mares Verdana Blue and Apple's Jade.

Cheltenham 2020 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 - CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase

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