Oscars Betting Tips, Advice and Latest Odds

Roy Brindley

October 31st, 2019

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Quick Tips:

• Joker to win the ‘Best Film’ Oscar at 5/1 with Ladbrokes
• Christian Bale to win the ‘Best Actor’ Oscar at 9/1 with Paddy Power

In a break from tradition the 92nd Academy Awards ceremony, which will honour the best films of 2019, will take place on February 9th 2020, a full two weeks earlier than its traditional slot.

Consequently the Governors Awards ceremony, which kicks off the Oscar 2020 betting frenzy, was brought forward by a fortnight – it took place on Sunday, October 27th – and the floodgates were then opened on at least three of the biggest awards in showbiz: The Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress Academy Awards.

The remaining Oscars schedule is as follows:

Prices are sure to fluctuate dramatically every step of the way although January 5th is the biggest date all as that is when the Golden Globe Awards are meshed out – and there is no better barometer to Oscar success than the destination of the key Golden Globes.

Globe/Oscar Double

Put simply the stats indicate the winner of the Best Actor Golden Globe is a proverbial shoe-in for the Best Actor Academy Award. Last year Rami Malek won both awards for his depiction of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. In 2017 Gary Oldman did the ‘awards double’ as did Casey Affleck in 2016, Leonardo DiCaprio in 2015, Eddie Redmayne in 2014, Mathew McConaughey in 2013 and Daniel Day-Lewis in 2012.

2011 was the last time separate actors won the Best Actor Golden Globe and Best Actor Academy Award, those being George Clooney and Jean Dujardin but it was normal service in 2010 with Colin Firth taking both accolades as did Jeff Bridges in 2009.

Venice Form Floats

• And then there is the Venice Film Festival which has become another remarkable source of Oscar winners during the past decade. The 2018 Oscar ceremony handed its Best Picture award to The Shape of Water a film which had previously collected the Golden Lion’ (the Best Picture award) at the Venice Film Festival.
• In fact plenty of recent Best Picture Academy Award material has gone through the Venice Film Festival: Birdman, the 2014 Best Picture Academy Award recipient premiered in Venice. Spotlight, the 2015 Best Picture Academy Award recipient, also premiered in Venice.
• Even at the 2016 Academy Awards – for about 20 seconds due to Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty being given the wrong envelope – La La Land, another Venice debutant, was the brief winner of the Best Picture Academy Award. In addition to The Shape of Water 2008, Oscar winner The Wrestler also did the Golden Lion/Academy Award Best Picture double.

No Joke About Lion Winner

• Forward wind to 2018 and the Golden Lion winner was Joker, an American psychological thriller film directed by Todd Phillips and based on DC Comics characters. And punters have taken the hint too as Joker has been backed into 5/1 (top-priced at Bet365) to ride a wave of controversy – the Warner Bros. movie has been criticised for making a hero of its central violent character – and win the Best Film Oscar in February.
• It did enjoy an eight-minute standing ovation at its Venice world premiere after all and the film, made on a $55-$70 million budget, is set to smash $1 billion in box office sales by mid-November. It is already the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time.

A Once Upon a Time Story

• Obviously the 5/1 in the Best Picture market holds immediate appeal but Joker has plenty of genuine opposition and there are six films currently trading at 10/1 or less in the betting. Amongst those is Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (as short as 5/1 with Bet365, 8/1 at Ladbrokes).

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• Quentin Tarantino, with an impressive list of credits including Pulp Fiction, Kill Bill, Inglorious Bastards and Reservoir Dogs, directed this comedy-drama which is set in the heart of the 1969 Los Angeles film industry, on $90 million budget – much of which must have gone on the cast which includes Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie – and since its summer-time release it has netted a pleasing $370 million at the box office.
• The Sam Mendes’ written and directed WW1 drama ‘1917’ starring Richard Madden, Colin Firth and Benedict Cumberbatch, is a real dark horse as it will not go on limited release until Christmas Day 2019 and full release a fortnight later. The timing indicates Universal Pictures believe they have an Oscar winner and its revered English film director is best known for directing the drama film American Beauty which earned him the Academy Award and Golden Globe Award for Best Director. The film itself tells the story of two young British soldiers during the First World War who are given an impossible mission.
• But the current favourite to be decorated with the Best Picture Oscar amid reports that Netflix is forking out $1bn to ensure success at the Academy Awards is The Irishman. Martin Scorsese’s three-and-a-half-hour gangster movie will be available for worldwide streaming at the end of November (the USA from the start of the month), but Netflix have confirmed a limited theatrical release beforehand in order meet the requirements for Oscar consideration.

Verdict

It’s easy to get excited about The Irishman with his trusty steeds Robert De Niro, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci sure to stamp their mark all over a trademark Scorsese epic. The big unknown is voter’s thoughts towards Netflix who have a second ‘Best Picture Oscar’ candidate in the shape of Noah Baumbach’s comedy-drama Marriage Story.

1917 is a complete unknown which, in horse racing terms has probably been tearing up the home gallops. And the name Quentin Tarantino goes alongside a movie in the same way as Dettori and Gosden do on a Group 1 runner on a summer Saturday – so Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is a shortie by default. But the Venice Golden Lion form is both strong and proven and it makes Joker over-priced at 5/1.

Recommended Bet: Joker to win the ‘Best Film’ Oscar at 5/1 with Ladbrokes

Best Actor Is No Joke

The betting on the Best Actor category indicates the destination of this award will be far more clear-cut. It sees Joaquin Phoenix, the Joker, trading at 4/9. Adam Driver, a nomination in the Best Supporting Actor category last year (for his part in BlacKkKlansman), is 7/2 second-best for his role as Charlie Barber in the American comedy-drama film Marriage Story.

Yet another Netflix job this film will receive a limited theatrical release from November 6th and go on the digital streaming platform a month later. Robert De Niro (The Irishman) and 2015 winner Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon A Time In Hollywood) follow in the betting at 8/1 apiece.

The form pointer in this market is seven of the last ten Best Actor winners playing a real-life character – most recently Rami Malek portraying Freddie Mercury; Colin Firth (The King’s Speech, 2011); Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln, 2013); Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club, 2014); Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything, 2015); Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant, 2016) and Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour).

Naturally we would love to see Joaquin Phoenix take the prize and enhance the prospects of Joker in the Best Picture category. But unquestionably there is little value in him at 4/9 and history suggests we should search elsewhere. The biographical drama Ford v Ferrari ($100 million budget – to be released in mid-November) might be the place to look and there we will find the four-time Oscar-nominated Christian Bale amongst the runners.

A finalist in this category in 2014 (American Hustle) and last year for his role in Vice, Bale plays the part of Ken Miles who was a British-born, naturalised American car racer and engineer best known for his motorsport career in the US and with American teams on the international scene.

Recommended Bet: Christian Bale to win the ‘Best Actor’ Oscar at 9/1 with Paddy Power

Best Actress

Sadly the betting firms have been slow in pricing up the Best Actress market. Only a few of the bucket companies have got involved – consequently placing a meaningful bet could be difficult – and they make Renee Zellweger their odds-on favourite. Given she’s available at 7/2 with Vegas sportsbooks for her role in Judy – a biographical flick about Judy Garland. Stateside Scarlett Johansson, who stars in Marriage Story is 4/1 as is Saoirse Ronan who will appear in the Christmas day release Little Women.

But this is a mighty strong category with Helen Mirren (The Good Liar), Charlize Theron (Bombshell - released December 20), Alfre Woodard (Clemency - December 27), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet - November 1), Anne Hathaway (Dry Run - November 22), Felicity Jones (The Aeronauts - December 6) and Kristen Stewart (Seberg - December 13) all amongst a Grand National sized field on the day the weights have been announced.

Oscars 2020 Best Picture Betting (As of 30/10/2019)