Pertemps Final Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 17th, 2021

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BEST 2021 PERTEMPS FINAL TRENDS

• Won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
• Won no more than 5 hurdle races
• Run in 1-5 handicap hurdles
• Last ran no more than 76 days ago
• Last ran in a novice hurdle or handicap hurdle

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Pertemps Final? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Pertemps Final.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this tricky Cheltenham Festival handicap, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Pertemps Final, as they did last year when pinpointing two of the first four finishers.

Scroll down to find out how the trends did that last year, and read full details of all the key Pertemps Final trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Pertemps Final Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle?

On the Pertemps Final trends in 2020, a shortlist of five found two of the first four, in a notoriously tricky Cheltenham Festival heat.

Most important of the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends are those relating to exposure, which dictates the handicap rating allotted to a horse.

Not one of the last 15 winners had won more than five hurdle races, and none of the last 10 winners had won more than two handicap hurdles. In addition, only three of the last 10 winners had won last time out, and only two had ever won a Graded race.

Sire Du Berlais, defending champion, fit all those trends before winning in 2019, and fit them once again in 2020. He had run in more hurdle races and more handicap hurdles than many recent winners, and at 152 rated higher, but was respected because trainer Gordon Elliott had won the last two runnings.

Stablemate The Storyteller was consequently also respected, and in some ways was more attractive on trends, having never won a handicap hurdle, but boasting plenty of non-handicap hurdle experience, and a Grade 1 chase win.

The pair finished first and second, with Tout Est Permis (last ran in a chase, and too lowly-rated at 136) in third, and Third Wind (had never run over 3m, and a 77-day break is too long) in fourth. Though both were attractive to place-bettors, they had decent red flags for win trends.

The final three on the trends shortlist were Relegate, Stoney Mountain and Skandiburg. They had all won no more than two handicap hurdles, and no more than four hurdle races. Relegate stood out thoough as she had won no handicaps, but was the 2018 Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner.

She finished best of the three, landing fifth, with Skandiburg 15th and Stoney Mountain 9th.

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KEY PERTEMPS FINAL TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Won no more than five hurdle races
• Won no more than 3 handicap hurdles
• Had run up to seven times that season
• Had run in at least one handicap hurdle
• Last ran in a novice hurdle or handicap hurdle

12 of the last 15 winners…

• Had not run in more than five handicap hurdles before; exceptions Buena Vista (2010, 2011), Sire Du Berlais (2020)

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
• Finished in the first two in one of their last six starts
• Last ran no more than 76 days ago
• Were officially rated 138 or higher
• Had run at least twice that season, four winning
• Had run in a race over at least 3m, five winning

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Had won on a galloping track; exception Mall Dini (2016)
• Last ran in a handicap hurdle; exception Buena Vista (2011)
• Carried at least 10st 10lb to victory; exception Buena Vista (2011)
• Were aged between 5-8; exception Buena Vista (2011)

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had never won a Graded race; exception Grade 1 winner Fingal Bay (2014) and dual Pertemps winner Sire Du Berlais (2020)
• Had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles; exceptions Buena Vista (2011), Sire Du Berlais (2020)
• Had never run in the Pertemps Final before; exceptions dual winners Buena Vista and Sire Du Berlais

Seven of the last 10 winners…

• Had run in a maximum of nine hurdle races; exceptions Buena Vista (2011), Cape Tribulation (2012), Sire Du Berlais (2020)

The last 40 win and place positions

39/40 placed horses

• Had won no more than five handicap hurdles; exception Tobefair (2019)

38/40 placed horses

• Had run no more than seven times that season; exceptions Pineau De Re (2014), Taglietelle (2016)
• Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts; Buena Vista (2011), Sire Du Berlais (2019)

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KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Sire Du Berlais won 2020’s Pertemps Final

In an episode of Deja Vu, Sire Du Berlais gave trainer Gordon Elliott a third successive Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final victory, getting up to beat stablemate The Storyteller by half a length in the final 100 yards.

The eight-year-old had been less exposed when winning the race 12 months earlier, but once again made no mistake under jockey Barry Geraghty, defying topweight to become only the third in history to win the 3m test for a second time.

2.10 CHELTENNHAM - 2020 Pertemps Final Result

1. Sire Du Berlais 10/1
2. The Storyteller 11/2j
3. Tout Est Permis 12/1
4. Third Wind 12/1

Given a patient ride, JP McManus's French-bred got into the mix at the last hurdle and rallied up the hill to pass The Storyteller, which denied his jockey Davy Russell a record fourth Pertemps Final win - and added Geraghty to the hat-trick list.

Tout Est Permis matched The Storyteller over the last, but was soon one-paced and finished a distant third, ahead of Third Wind, who held-off Relegate by a short-head.

Cheltenham 2021 Thursday Schedule

13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase trends

14:10 - Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends