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There was major move in the RSA Chase betting after big fancy Santini was seen limping away from his final piece of work.
He had lost a shoe and put in jeopardy his Cheltenham Festival 2019 claims, causing ructions in the RSA Novices’ Chase odds as Delta Work came in for heavy support with real fears about Nicky Henderson’s charges participation.
Thankfully, Santini was passed as fit on Wednesday and I think that means he can go on to win the RSA Chase. He was seen strutting his stuff with ease on Nicky Henderson’s Twitter page ahead of his date with destiny.
All is well in the world with Santini this morning and we’re firmly back on track for the RSA! pic.twitter.com/O3nHaDXUwz
— Nicky Henderson (@sevenbarrows) 6 March 2019
It was a tough few hours for many, me included, who thinks there is something very special about this son of Milan. The 2019 RSA Chase could well be one for the ages with the top three in the market all carrying lofty reputations into the race.
The RSA Novices' Chase is a Grade 1 chase open to novice chasers aged five years or older. It is run on the Old Course at Cheltenham over a distance of about 3 miles. It is a race for horses with plenty of stamina and during its running there are nineteen fences to be jumped. The 2019 renewal is again sponsored by RSA Insurance and winning connections take home a cool £98,473.
14.10 Wednesday, March 13 - LIVE ON: ITV Racing, RTE Racing, Racing TV
The RSA Novices' Chase betting favourite Santini does have some strong Cheltenham trends to beat, with each of the last 15 winners having run up to seven times in the last 12 months, including 3-6 times that season.
Another strong trend Santini will have to overcome is: 9 of the last 10 winners had last run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice chase no more than 39 days ago - he definitely does not fit that bill.
>> Click for RSA Novices’ Chase 10-Year Trends
Santini (7/1 888 Sport) was once described as the “slowest horse” Nicky Henderson has ever trained, but that is generally what you are looking for in a race like this. As a novice hurdler Santini has already won at Cheltenham, finished 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival and won a Grade 1 at Aintree. 3 miles at Cheltenham, in an attritional race will suit Santini down to a tee. Basically, he was born to run in the RSA Chase.
Topofthegame (7/2 William Hill) is talented but finds winning very hard and is still a maiden over fences. The big danger is Delta Work (2/1 BetHard), who won the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival last year.
>>What Is Rory Delargy's One Horse To Back For Cheltenham?
He beat Le Richebourg in the Drinmore and hacked up in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas when upped to 3m last time.
The likes of On The Blind Side (10/1 888 Sport), Champagne Classic (16/1 Bet365) and Chris’ Dream (20/1 William Hill) show how strong a renewal we have here, as these three horses would not be big prices in any other race.
>> Back Santini to Win RSA Chase at 7/2 with 888 Sport
"Delta Work’s in very good form, again I didn’t go to Leopardstown for the Dublin Racing Festival with him. He was declared and all, I was just fearful that the ground was too quick for him.
"Davy Russell said it was a quick as he wanted it when he won there at Christmas, and he has plenty of experience. He’s three runs over fences, he’s won two Grade 1s. I didn’t think I had anything to gain from running again."
"A lot of horses missed there Cheltenham prep last weekend because they had to be vaccinated, Santini was one of them and I need him to go to the racecourse for a gallop now, and even jump some fences. Another run would have done him the world of good, despite him having a lot of experience over hurdles.
"I was very pleased with his run at Kempton and I tend to agree with the assumption that most people concluded, which was that he was the horse to take out of the Kauto Star Novices' Chase and will be the one to beat in the RSA Chase.
"Cheltenham will clearly suit him much better than Kempton, but that doesn't mean he will necessarily reverse the form with the second [Topofthegame]. I would have loved to have run him in the Renyoldstown last weekend at Ascot - as he really needed it. We will do plenty of schooling instead, and away we go."
This race will suit much more than Kempton at Christmas, and Santini can overturn the form with the re-opposing Topofthegame. Santini never handled the course that day and found himself well behind the aforementioned Topofthegame and La Bague Au Roi turning in.
He stayed on dourly however, giving the clear indication that on a more galloping track, like Cheltenham, he could easily overturn that form. Before this, he won at Newbury beating Rocky’s Treasure in taking fashion and looked every inch a future star.
As a novice hurdler Santini has already won at Cheltenham, finished 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival and won a Grade One at Aintree.
Like many, he has been forced to miss targets with the firm ground and Equine Influenza, but Nicky Henderson will deliver him in top form on the day and he should take all the beating in a race that will be run to suit this son of Milan.
Delta Work has every chance in this contest and boasts Cheltenham Festival winning form, winning the 2018 Pertemps Final. He beat Le Richebourg in the Drinmore Novices Chase and was very impressive when easily winning the Grade 1 Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas when upped to 3m last time.
He has amassed plenty of experience and it’s not hard to see why Gordon Elliott loves him so much. He stays, handles the course and seems to have a lot going for him.
Topofthegame is talented but finds winning very hard and is still a maiden over fences. He was a very brave runner-up in the Coral Cup at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 150, but there is some hope that he can get involved. He just looks a shade skinny at 7/2with William Hill.
There were excuses for his loss at Exeter, and last time in the Kauto Star at Kempton over Christmas he jumped and travelled well when not quite able to get past La Bague Au Roi.He enjoyed himself that day, but I struggle to see him upholding that form with Santini in a test as severe as the RSA Chase.
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