Ryanair Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 10th, 2021

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BEST 2021 RYANAIR CHASE TRENDS

• Rated 161+
• Run at Cheltenham before
• Run in at least one Grade 1
• Last ran no more than 82 days ago
• Won three or more times on galloping tracks

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Ryanair Chase? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Ryanair Chase.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this Cheltenham Festival Grade 1, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Ryanair Chase, as they did last year when circling winner Min.

Scroll down to find out why the trends highlighted him last year, and read full details of all Ryanair Chase trends worth following, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Ryanair Chase Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Ryanair Chase?

Four horses made the 2020 Ryanair Chase trends shortlist, two finishing on the podium.

The 7-2 favourite A Plus Tard had won at the Cheltenham Festival in 2019, landing the 2m4f novices' handicap chase, and had gone on to win a Grade 1 chase at Leopardstown.

He fit the 'Top ' trends and all the '10-Year' trends, his form on galloping tracks and win last time out marking him out as a strong selection.

He went on to finish third behind winner Min, who was the top-rated runner at 170. As a five-time Grade 1 winner over fences, with two Cheltenham Festival placings, he was also a strong trends pick.

It's not in the trends, but his rating also marked him out as impossible to ignore; only three horses rated more than 169 had run in the race in the last 10 renewals, two had won.

The third trends pick was 2019 winner Frodon. He did not come into the race with as good a preparation, but had still won well last time out, and was a course specialist.

Riders Onthe Storm was the final and most tentative trends selection. He had put himself on the list with victory in Key Race the Ascot Chase, which took his chase wins to four - the latest two at galloping tracks.

What made the 11-1 shot such an uneasy trends pick was that he had fallen on his only other outing at Cheltenham - and thus, he fell again this time.

Second Saint Calvados was 16-1 for a reason as his handicap campaign and relatively lowly rating of 161 left him well below others.

KEY RYANAIR CHASE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners...

• Last ran no more than 82 days ago
• Had three or more wins on a galloping track

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were aged seven to 10
• Were officially rated 161+
• Had run at least six times over fences in their career
• Had run no more than four times that season
• Had run in at least three Grade 1s
• Had run at Cheltenham - seven had won
• Had won on a left-handed track
• Had won a race run over a distance between 2m3f-2m5f
• Had run at least three times in races over 2m3f-2m5f

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Had won at least four chases
• Were aged between seven and nine
• Had finished in the first two in one of their last three starts

Eight of the last 10 winners…

• Had won a Grade 1
• Had won that season

The last 29 win and place positions

29/29 placed horses

• Had run at least five times over fences in their career
• Had recorded at least two wins on a galloping track
• Had run no more than seven times in the last 12 months
• Had run no more than five times that season

28/29 placed horses

• Had won on a left-handed track

27/29 placed horses

• Had finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Had run at Cheltenham before

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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Ryanair Chase)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Min Won 2020's Ryanair Chase

Beaten twice by the mighty Altior at the Festival, Min finally got his Cheltenham win, with a battling neck win over Saint Calvados.

Plagued by injuries throughout a still glittering career, the nine-year-old boasted five Grade 1 chase wins, and had returned to his best with victory in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown.

2.50 CHELTENHAM - 2020 RYANAIR CHASE RESULT

1. Min 2/1
2. Saint Calvados 16/1
3. A Plus Tard 7/4f

Despite being the highest-rated in the field, his fragility made the 2019 Festival winner A Plus Tard favourite, but he was unable to quicken after the last, where Min and Saint Calvados galloped away.

The win was a third in five years for trainer Willie Mullins, whose other two winners were also rated in the 170s.

Frodon, victorious 12 months earlier, had not had as good a preparation and was beaten three fences out. He finished 13 lengths behind A Plus Tard in fourth.

Cheltenham 2021 Thursday Schedule

13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase trends

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 - Ryanair Chase

15:30 STAYERS' HURDLE trends

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends