Scilly Isles Novices' Chase Betting Tips, Trends & Odds

Steve Mullington

January 29th, 2019

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Quick Tips

• Bet Vinndication wins at 5/2 with 888sport
• Bet On Mulcahys Hill Each-Way at 16/1 with Unibet
• Bet On Ok Corral Each-Way at 8/1 with William Hill

This Saturday’s Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase should give us a few pointers to the Cheltenham Festival as for many years, runners from this contest have gone on to compete in the JLT Novices Chase.

Neck and neck at the head of the Scilly Isles betting are the Dipper Chase 1-2 from New Year’s Day, Lostintranslation and Defi Du Seuil, along with the Kim Bailey-trained Vinndication - all at odds no bigger than 5/2 for the 2m4f Grade 1.

Scilly Isles Novices' Chase Favourites

The Philip Hobbs-trained Defi Du Seuil looked to have the measure of Lostintranslation when moving to the lead between the final two fences at Cheltenham last time, but the seven-year-old rallied on the run-in to get back up for what looked like an unlikely victory.

Paddy Power make Defi Du Seuil a best-priced 5/2 shot while the race sponsors, 888sport, make Lostintranslation and Vinndication 5/2 chances too. One can envisage this trio flip-flopping in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase betting all week.

After the unbeaten Vinndication (nap) landed the Grade 2 Noel Novices' Chase at Ascot last time out, bookmakers were forced to his cut his odds in the Cheltenham betting for both the RSA Chase and JLT Novices' Chase.

>> RSA Chase betting trends

Bailey has indicated that the RSA Chase is his preferred target at Prestbury Park and he is currently 14/1 with William Hill for that Grade 1. If the Vinnie Roe gelding makes it seven out of seven on Saturday afternoon then you can expect that 14/1 to go up in a puff of smoke.

Therefore at this juncture it is advisable to take the 5/2 available at 888sport for Vinndication in the Scilly Isles and the 14/1 on offer about him for the Cheltenham Festival. That really would be a nice double if it comes in!

>> Bet Vinndication wins Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at 5/2 with 888sport

Scilly Isles Novices' Chase Trends (last 10 renewals)

The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase 10-year trends post some interesting angles you can use to try to split the trio of favourites at the head of the Sandown betting - or perhaps unearth a dark horse with bigger odds.

• Last run – 10/10 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out, 8 winning
• Age - 9/10 winners were aged younger than 8.
• Rating – 8/10 winners were rated 145 or higher; exceptions Punchestowns (no rating) and Gitane Du Berlais (139), though most winners rated 150+
• Experience - 8/10 winners had run at least twice over fences, 7/10 running in 3 or more chases
• Form - 7/10 winners had won 2 or more chases, 9/10 winning at least one.
• Course form - 7/10 winners had run at Sandown before.
• Trainer – 5/10 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson.

When we used these trends to unpick the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase, it unfortunately still pointed towards Vinndication, Lostintranslation and Defi Du Seuil, with preference for the later two as they are more highly-rated. However, the nine-year-old Ok Corral was but a tick behind. . .

Trends Pick: Ok Corral

Given his impeccable record in this race in recent times, it comes as a surprise to see the Nicky Henderson-trained Ok Corral trading at a generous 8/1 with William Hill.

Runner-up in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at last season's Cheltenham Festival, the lightly raced nine-year-old is a recent convert to the chasing game, but appears to be a natural at it already.

After his facile win at Warwick last time, the JP McManus-owned novice was slashed into the 100/30 favourite for the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Festival. Obviously, this is a very different race in terms of distance, but the Ok Corral team will undoubtedly be looking for another bold showing in this pre-Cheltenham warm up.

The lightly-raced contender has already won two chases from 3m-3m1f, and overall has won five of his nine career starts, finishing out of the first two once in his lifetime, in a Grade 1 hurdle at Aintree.

>> Bet On Ok Corral Each-Way at 8/1 with William Hill

Outsider Bet

The rather quirky, but incredibly game Mulcahys Hill (nb) will definitely be in the line for trainer Warren Greatrex and could represent some decent each-way value at 16/1 with Scandinavian firm Unibet.

After a wind operation, the seven-year-old ran a decent race at Bangor, finishing runner-up and has had a sizeable break since. If he adopts his usual front-running style and gets into a steady rhythm, his rivals may find him difficult to peg back.

>> Bet On Mulcahys Hill Each-Way at 16/1 with Unibet

La Bague Au Roi's Chances

Still prominent in the betting (6/1 Ladbrokes) is Mulcahys Hill's stablemate La Bague Au Roi, but she is 99.9% certain to be heading to the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown, and is only keeping this entry in case of any transportation issues.

Keep an ear out for those shipping forecasts on the radio, just in case La Bague Au Roi is forced to stay at home, and her odds of 6/1 suddenly become a massive proposition.

>> Consider La Bague Au Roi at 6/1 with Ladbrokes