Should Punters Go With Position or Form for Roma v AC Milan?

Should Punters Go With Position or Form for Roma v AC Milan?

The highlight of this weekend’s Serie A programme sees Roma take on AC Milan in a battle between Italy’s two biggest cities and two of its biggest football clubs. Roma are seen as favourites, but they have been shaky at home lately, while Milan’s resurgent form makes this an even more intriguing match-up, and an excellent football betting opportunity for fans this weekend.

With Napoli and Juventus engaged in a two-horse race for the league title, the focus for Roma and Milan is securing Champions League football for next season. Roma currently sit in third place following three wins having started the year with two defeats and two draws. However, they have picked up only 4 points from their last four home games, and four of their five defeats in Serie A this season have come at home.

The Giallorossi have the upper hand when it comes to the recent record between the two sides, winning their last four meetings and losing just one of the last 11. They are currently getting odds of 17/20 with BetBright, one of the UK's budding new sportsbooks, to make it five wins in a row against Milan.

Form Makes Milan More Appealing

It’s been a largely disappointing 2017/2018 season up to now for Milan, at least when it comes to the domestic front. After a summer of big spending by the Italian clubhouse, there were high hopes that the Rossoneri would challenge Juve for the title but they’re not even in the European places at the moment.

Things are starting to look up, though. Under coach Gennaro Gattuso, who replaced Vincenzo Montella in November, they are unbeaten so far this year and will probably have booked their place in the Europa League last 16 by the time this match comes around this weekend.

Gattuso’s side have won five of their last six league games, including wins over fellow European contenders Lazio and Sampdoria, and another victory could lift them back into the top six. William Hill offering odds of 3/1 on an away win are certainly tempting, while punters can back a draw at online betting arm of Betfair.

Strong Defences Could Mean Few Goals

If the match result is too close to call, then consider betting on the total goals over/under market instead. Italy has always been renowned for good defending and given that this is a hugely important game for both sides, it would not be a surprise to see a highly tactical match on Sunday.

Roma boast the third-best defensive record in Serie A after the top two, with just 19 goals conceded in 25 games. But other than their recent 5-2 win over bottom side Benevento, they’ve not been scoring particularly highly themselves. In fact, nine of their last 11 league games have produced fewer than 2.5 goals.

One of the factors in Milan’s good form is an improvement in defence. The Rossoneri have conceded just four goals in their last seven Serie A fixtures, although they’ve kept only one clean sheet in their last seven away from home. With Italy internationals Leonardo Bonucci and Alessio Romagnoli in the centre of defence and wonderkid Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, they certainly have the quality required.

There have been fewer than 2.5 goals in six of the last ten meetings between the powerhouse Italian sides so Coral's online sportsbook is offering odds of 19/20 on this one to do the same and finish with less that 2.4 goals. More than 2.5 goals can also be backed at a similar price of 5/6 with the UK-based bookmaker, though.

Who Will Draw First Blood?

Another market punters may want to consider for this match is team to score first. Again, Roma are the favourites with the bookies (4/6 with Ladbrokes) but a look at the recent stats suggests that it’s the away side who may be more likely to draw first blood. Milan have scored the first goal in five of their last six league games, whereas the Giallorossi have only done so in four of their last nine.

The visitors for this weekend's clash are best-priced at 17/10 with Betfair to open the scoring in Rome on Sunday. For other top bookmaker odds and football betting markets for this Sunday's matchup, open a new player account with Betfair where first time customers can get up to £100 in free bets when they join.

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