Stayers' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 17th, 2021

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BEST 2021 STAYERS' HURDLE TRENDS

• Aged between six and nine
• Running at least 47 days after last run
• Previous experience of Cheltenham
• Two or more starts in last 12 months
• Won a Grade 2 or Grade 1

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Stayers' Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Stayers' Hurdle.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this Cheltenham Festival Championship race, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Stayers' Hurdle.

Scroll down to read full details of the other key Stayers' Hurdle trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Stayers Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Stayers' Hurdle Last Year?

On the trends, the 2021 Stayers' Hurdle shortlist consisted of Paisley Park, Bacardys, and Summerville Boy - one of that three finishing in the first three places in a shock renewal of this Cheltenham Festival classic.

Paisley Park was the 4/6f favourite having won Key Race (see below) the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out. He had taken the same route before winning the 2019 Stayers' Hurdle and ticked every trends box then, and in 2020.

The eight-year-old lost two shoes in the race and ran inexplicably badly to finish a distance seventh.

Bacardys was next-best in the trends shortlist and great value at 33/1, boasting a third in the Champion Bumper, Grade 1 over hurdles and a Grade 2 win that season. He had won plenty of times racing left-handed and on galloping tracks, and had plenty of Cheltenham experience, albeit not all of it promising.

He had also had a 75-day break and was rated a lofty 157, but never got closer to winning than his third place at the finish.

Summerville Boy, the 2018 Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner, was also a clear selection, with excellent Cheltenham form, and a recent Grade 2 win. At 10-1, he was a better bet than Paisley Park, who had beaten him last time out, but didn't help his chances when hitting the penultimate flight and ended up fifth.

Winner Lisnagar Oscar was 50/1 for a reason; he had not won that season, was soundly beaten by Paisley Park last time out, did not have the required left-handed or galloping track wins, and was rated a lowly 146. His victory was a trends bust.

KEY STAYERS HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Were aged between six and nine
• Had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle
• Had run at Cheltenham before - 10 winning

14 of the last 15 winners…

Exception Lisnagar Oscar (2020)

• Were officially rated 153+
• Had three or more wins on a left-handed track

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

Had won at least two hurdle races

• Had run at least twice in the last 12 months
• Last ran at least 47 days ago

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Won one of their last three starts; exception Lisnagar Oscar (2020)
• Had run at least twice in the season; exception Penhill (2018)
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle; exception ran in a Grade 3
• Had three or more wins on a galloping track; exception Lisnagar Oscar (2020)

The last 30 win and place positions

29/30 placed horses

• Had run twice or more in the last 12 months; exception Penhill (2018)
• Finished in the first two in one of their last four starts; exception Lisnagar Oscar (2020)
• Were running within 90 days of their last start; exception Penhill (2018)

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KEY RACE TRENDS (13 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Stayers' Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

Paul Nicholls

Paul Nicholls' two winners:

Willie Mullins

Willie Mullins' two winners:

How Lisnagar Oscar Won 2020's Stayers' Hurdle

There was no fairytale double for Paisley Park as the 4/6 favourite faded tamely behind shock 50-1 winner Lisnagar Oscar

Out of form all season, the seven-year-old had shown a glimmer of hope when third to Paisley Park in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out, but was still rated third-lowest in the 15-runner field for the 2020 Stayers' Hurdle.

3.30 CHELTENHAM – 2020 STAYERS' HURDLE RESULT

1. Lisnagar Oscar 50/1
2. Ronald Pump 20/1
3. Bacardys 33/1

However, nobody told him, and after jockey Adam Wedge pressed him to lead off the final bend, he boundly gamely up the hill to win by two lengths over Ronald Pump, whose race had not gone so smoothly.

The nine-year-old Bacardys, who had been sixth in 2019, stayed on to take third from Rendlesham Hurdle winner Emitom, with Summerville Boy hald a length back in fifth.

Cheltenham 2021 Thursday Schedule

13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase trends

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle trends

14:50 Ryanair Chase trends

15:30 - STAYERS' HURDLE

16:10 Festival Plate Handicap Chase trends

16:50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle trends

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase trends