Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

TOP 5 SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE TRENDS

  • Two or more starts in novice hurdles
  • Aged five or six
  • Won, or beaten no more than two lengths, last time out
  • Between two and five starts in the season
  • Running within 80 days of last start

Get the latest Supreme Novices Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win Last Year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle?

On the trends last year, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle shortlist consisted of Cheltenham betting favourite Getabird, Kalashnikov, Mengli Khan, Paloma Blue and Summerville Boy, who went on to win the Cheltenham Festival opener.

Paloma Blue, Getabird, Mengli Khan and Kalashnikov all earned their place by running in at least one of the 'Key Races' (see below), Getabird and Mengli Khan also being trained by 'Key Trainers' (see below).

Summerville Boy ticked every box on the 10-year and 15-year trends for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, while Mengli Khan was too exposed, and Getabird had never even run on a left-handed track before.

Paloma Blue would have ticked every box if he's won on a left-handed track, and not been beaten quite so far by Samcro on his last start before the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, and Kalashnikov's trend fail was his run in the Betfair Handicap Hurdle - all of the last 10 winners ran last time out in a novice event.


KEY SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

  • Had run in at least two novice hurdles
  • Had run at least twice in that season

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

  • Were aged five or six
  • Had no more than five novice hurdle starts
  • Had run between two and five times in the season
  • Last ran in a novice hurdle
  • Were running within 80 days of their last start

Nine of the last 10 winners…

  • Were officially rated 142+
  • Had won one of their last three starts
  • Had won a Graded race - exception had not been tried
  • Had won on a left-handed track
  • Finished in the first two last time out - exception was enigmatic Labaik in 2017

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

  • Were running between 16 and 90 days after their last start

29/30 placed horses

  • Were aged five or six
  • Had won one of their last three starts
  • Had run at least twice that season

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle)

Key RaceRacecourseWinnersPlace Finishers
Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (G2)PunchestownDouvanMengli Khan, Min, Trifolium
Slaney Novice Hurdle (G2)NaasLabaikGo Native
Future Champions Novice Hurdle (G1)LeopardstownNoneSizing John, Jezki
Deloitte Novice Hurdle (G1)LeopardstownVautour, Champagne FeverDunguib
Tolworth Novices' Hurdle (G1)SandownSummerville BoyJosses Hill
Betfair Handicap Hurdle (G3)NewburyNoneMy Tent Or Yours, Kalashnikov

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

TrainerRunsWinsWin%P/LPlaces
Willie Mullins 27 3 11 -13.50 3
Nicky Henderson 18 1 6 -13.00 8
Gordon Elliott 4 1 25 22.00 1

WATCH: Racehour Supreme Novices' Hurdle Preview


How Summerville Boy Won 2018's Supreme Novices'

Summerville Boy came with a late run to land the opening race of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival when the 9/1 shot denied Kalashnikov in the dying strides of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

The Killarney bumper winner had been beaten twice in Cheltenham novices' hurdles before the Festival, taking four runs to finally win any hurdle race, in the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices' Hurdle.

That day though, the six-year-old defeated Kalashnikov on heavy ground, the second going on to win the hugely competitive Betfair Handicap Hurdle. Those earlier defeats stuck out for supporters of Tom George's contender though, his odds drifting out to 9/1 in the betting, as Getabird went off the 7/4 favourite.


1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2018 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE RESULT

  1. Summerville Boy 5/1
  2. Kalashnikov 4/1
  3. Mengli Khan 33/1

Bidding to give trainer Willie Mullins a fourth win in six years, Getabird attempted to make all the running, but faded at the top of the hill, Noel Fehily swooping on Summerville Boy to catch Kalashnikov on the hill and win by a neck.

Gordon Elliott’s enigmatic Mengli Khan, a Grade 1 winner earlier in the season, was given a patient ride by Jack Kennedy, tracking the second as he took the lead three out. Wearing a first-time tongue tie, he kept on for third.


Cheltenham 2019 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Novices' Handicap Chase

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase

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Terms and Conditions apply for all bonuses. Must be 18+ to participate.

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