Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 4th, 2021

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BEST 2021 SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

• Aged five or six
• Won last time out
• At least two runs that season
• Two or more starts in novice hurdles
• Last ran in a novice hurdle (not a handicap)

Betting On 2021 Supreme Novices' Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

We've analysed in detail each of the last 15 Supreme Novices' Hurdles, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Cheltenham Festival opener, just as they did last year when highlighting Shishkin.

Scroll to find out more about how the trends found him, and details of all the other Supreme Novices' Hurdle trends beyond the top five.

Get the latest Supreme Novices' Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Supreme Novices' Hurdle?

On the trends, the 2020 Supreme Novices' Hurdle shortlist included the winner Shishkin, three Grade 1 winners, and Allart.

The latter was quickly ruled out when stable jockey Nico de Boinville chose Shishkin, who ticked every 15-year and 10-year trend, and was trained by one of the races' top trainers Nicky Henderson.

Of the Grade 1 winners, Asterion Forlonge had one mark against him for being the Cheltenham betting favourite, and Abacadabras lacked a recent run.

Both still had to be considered though, ticking all other boxes, including being trained by top trainers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott.

Fiddlerontheroofwas also a strong trends pick, but Shishkin, Asterion Forlonge and Abacadabras were favoured due to their trainers' form in the race.

Shishkin's other stablemate Chantry House was a moderate trends pick, but appeared to prefer bettered ground, had lacked hurdling experience.

KEY SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE TRENDS

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners…

• Had run in at least two novice hurdles
• Had run at least twice that season

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Were aged five or six
• Had run in at least three hurdle races
• Had run between two and five times in the season
• Had won at least twice racing over 15-17f
• Last ran in a novice hurdle (not a handicap)
• Were running within 80 days of their last start

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Had won on a left-handed track
• Last ran no more than 66 days ago
• Won last time out - exception was enigmatic Labaik in 2017
• Were officially rated 142+ (only four were top-rated)
• Had won a Graded race - exception had not been tried, but did win a Listed hurdle
• Were not favourite in the betting - exception is Douvan in 2015

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Were running between 16 and 90 days after their last start

29/30 placed horses

• Were aged five or six
• Had won one of their last three starts - exception Labaik (2017)
• Had run at least twice that season - exception Melon (2017)

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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Shishkin Won 2020's Supreme Novices'

Shishkin overcame the worst of runs to land the opening race of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, by a hard-fought head.

At the top of the hill, as they turned for home, the six-year-old was to the rear. Jockey Nico De Boinville steered the Listed winner to the outside of the whole field over the third-last, where leader Asterion Forlonge jumped markedly left.

1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2020 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE RESULT

1. Shishkin 6/1
2. Abacadabras 11/4
3. Chantry House 15/2

When he did it again at the next, he brought Elixir D'ainay down at Shishkin's hooves, Boinville thankful for his mount's quick reactions, as he pressed the 6-1 shot to chase the cruising Abacadabras.

A cautious jump from the new leader at the last gave Shishkin the momentum. Taking Abacadabras' inside, he stayed on strongly to claim a gutsy win.

The first two pulled more than 11 lengths clear of the winner's stablemate Chantry House, who finished 14 lengths clear of fourth-placed favourite, Asterion Forlonge.

Cheltenham 2021 Tuesday Schedule

13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy

14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase

15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE

16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

17:30 National Hunt Novices' Chase