After watching the Minnesota Vikings lose outright in Week 3, a lot of people were worried about the big moneylines in Week 4. However, the only sweat was the Los Angeles Chargers as the Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars not only took care of business but won comfortably. We don’t have any big moneylines among our NFL betting picks for this week but here’s a look at who we like straight up for Week 5:
For the first time this season, we saw some vulnerabilities with the Kansas City Chiefs offense. They struggled through three quarters and had to dig themselves out of a hole at the end of the game. In this spot, I see the Jaguars as having a superior defense to the Broncos while also fielding a better offense. That’s why I’m leaning towards an upset.
Jacksonville has the NFL’s best scoring defense, allowing just 14 points per game. The Chiefs do have the league’s best offense, but they give up 28.8 points per game. The Jags tend to play well when they can run the ball and play defense. The Chiefs are dead-last in the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed at 5.7. Even though the Jags are expected to be without Fournette in this spot, T.J. Yeldon should have a great day and help lead the way to an upset.
The Lions are 1-3, and while they did beat the New England Patriots at home, it is starting to look more and more like that game was the outlier. The Lions needed to win at Dallas last week to prove that they could show a measure of consistency but what they showed is that they’re simply not a very good football team overall.
The biggest concern here has to be the Lions defense. They’re 30th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (5.3), 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed (157.8) and are 27th in opponent QB rating (104.3). It’s possible those numbers change drastically on Sunday – like they did for a week against New England – but what’s more likely is that we see more of this. How will the Packers lose if they’re able to run well and Aaron Rodgers is able to sit back and pick the Lions apart?
This will be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, but the Packers will be victorious in the end.
The 49ers are 1-3 straight up and against the spread this season, and barely defeated the Detroit Lions – a mediocre team – at home earlier this year for that lone win. That game was with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Jimmy G is now on the shelf, having been knocked out for the entire season with an injury, leaving C.J. Beathard as the starting quarterback.
The challenge with Beathard is that while he makes some nice throws from time to time, he’s been a turnover machine. He had two interceptions last week and fumbled (but the 49ers recovered). We’ve now seen seven full games from him and he’s had a turnover in every game.
Diving into the numbers, the 49ers also allow six more points per game than the Cardinals do (29.5 to 23.5). And while they looked competitive last week, that was mostly because the Los Angeles Chargers kept making boneheaded mistakes like a pick-six, blown defensive assignments and missed extra points. The 49ers likely won’t get those freebies again.
The Cards are a bad team but they’re reinvigorated with Josh Rosen under center. He looked pretty good last week. I’ll put some faith in him this week as he makes his first career road start.
This game just doesn’t look like a good matchup for Dallas. They’re a team that’s reliant on rushing success to take the pressure off a feeble passing game. While Houston defense has been shredded frequently this season, one thing they have done well is stop the run. They are fourth in yards per carry at just 3.5. They’ve only allowed one rushing touchdown this entire season; only two teams have allowed less.
On top of that, the Cowboys are on the road in this spot and they’re winless in their two away games. They’ve scored just 21 points in total in their two road games compared to 46 at home. The big difference seems to be Dak Prescott, who has a 107.5 quarterback rating at home compared to 66.8 on the road.
On the flip side, Houston is just one of seven teams to have already played three road games already (compared to just one home game), so some of their numbers might be skewed. Their offense averages 24 points per game, which is not spectacular, but Dallas averages only 16.8 points per game, one of the lowest figures in the league. It is very hard for the Cowboys to cobble together any semblance of an offense. I’ll take the Texans in this spot.