Triumph Hurdle Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting

Jessica Lamb

February 17th, 2021

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BEST 2021 TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS

• Beaten less than three lengths last time
• Last ran in Grade 1 or 2 hurdle
• Last ran no more than 55 days ago
• Had won if running at Cheltenham before
• Had won at least 50% of hurdle starts

Betting On Cheltenham's 2021 Triumph Hurdle? Follow These Trends:

Above are THE top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

We've analysed in detail the last 15 runnings of this juvenile Grade 1, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, and every other statistic we could think of.

What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Triumph Hurdle. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and read full details of all the key Triumph Hurdle trends to follow, beyond the top five.

Get the latest Triumph Hurdle Odds here

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Did Trends Win The Last Triumph Hurdle?

Stand-out from the 2020 Triumph Hurdle trends was A Wave Of The Sea, a 12/1 chance int the Cheltenham betting, who ticked all the Top Five and 10-Year boxes, and had won a big ‘Key Races' (see below) last time out.

Five of the last 10 winners ran in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in February, and a total of 14/40 horses placed in the last 10 Triumph Hurdles last ran in that race.

The one negative for A Wave Of The Sea was how busy his season had been. He had run 11 times in the last 12 months, and perhaps finished so far back because others were fresher.

Top-race trainers Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson interestingly had no runners, and no runner from the Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle Trial turned up, making this an open renewal.

The other three that best fitted the trends were winner Burning Victory, Solo and 5/2 favourite Goshen, who was 10 lengths clear when unseating Jamie Moore at the last hurdle.

He made the short-list by being unbeaten in four runs over hurdles, and three Flat races over 1m4f+. He had also won last time out, and taken just a 55-day break. But his luck was out when it counted.

Burning Victory had won over 1m4f on the Flat and was impressive when winning her hurdles debut at Fairyhouse in a Grade 3. That was her last run before Cheltenham, and it was notable that the win came at such a galloping track, a type of track that so many Festival winners excel at.

The one minor negative was that her trainer Willie Mullins has a terrible recent record in the race, but in the absence of top trainers Henderson and Elliott, she could be a more confident selection than in other years.

Solo was 1/2 over hurdles in France, and won his British debut at Kempton by 13-lengths in Grade 2 company, so was hard to rule out. He didn't take to Cheltenham's undulations, having only run on flat courses, and finished eighth.

Second Aspire Tower had run diabolically last time behind A Wave Of The Sea, and third Allmankind was a Cheltenham winner, lacked a recent run - and therefore fitness, which is crucial for this race, according to the trends.

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KEY TRIUMPH HURDLE TRENDS

What do the trends say about Flat form?

The Triumph Hurdle is only open to horses aged four years old, so it tends to attract runners that have racecourse experience on the Flat at three or two, before they took to hurdles. But, it's not essential, and trends have changed markedly in the past 10 years.

From 2000-2009, every Triumph Hurdle winner had run a minimum of 7 times on the Flat, and won at least once over distances ranging from 1m-1m6f. All but two in that period achieved a handicap rating of 80 or more too.

The profile was a decent staying handicapper, who had won a maiden, and maybe a handicap or two. Some had placed in Group 3 and Listed company, Celestial Halo starring in the period with a rating over 100 after finishing 7th in the St Leger.

However, from 2010-2020, four winners never ran on the Flat, five ran just three-five times - all winning or placing over at least 1m4f, another ran six, winning twice over 7f and 1m, then Pentland Hills ran 11 times and Countrywide Flame ran 16 times. They were exceptions and both won over distances of at least 1m3f.

So when you're looking for the winner of the 2021 Triumph Hurdle, minimal Flat form that includes a win over 1m4f+ is preferred, but no Flat form at all is also a positive.

15-year-trends

The last 15 winners...

• Finished in the first four last time out
• Finished in the first two in one of their last three starts
• Had run no more than five times that season
• Last ran in a hurdle or a novice hurdle, no more than 55 days ago

10-year-trends

The last 10 winners…

• Had run up to six times over hurdles
• Last ran no more than 48 days ago
• Had won if they had run at Cheltenham before

Nine of the last 10 winners…

• Were French or Irish-bred: exception Countrywide Flame (2012)
• Last ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2; exception Pentland Hills (2019)
• Had run no more than three times since their last win
• Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races, six were unbeaten; exception was 0-2
• Won last time out, or were beaten no more than two and a quarter lengths; exception finish fourth

The last 30 win and place positions

30/30 placed horses

• Last ran no more than 90 days ago
• Had run no more than four times since their last win

29/30 placed horses

• Finished in the first four last time out; exception fell

26/30 placed horses

• Won last time out, or were beaten no more than four lengths

KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)

(Last Graded race contested prior to the Triumph Hurdle)

KEY TRAINER TRENDS (10 years)

How Burning Victory Won 2020's Triumph Hurdle

Cheltenham legend Willie Mullins's Triumph Hurdle luck finally changed in 2020, when his Burning Victory was left in the lead at the final hurdle, having approached it 10 lengths second.

The 5-2 favourite, completely in control at that flight, unseated jockey Jamie Moore, leaving the race at Burning Victory's mercy.

1.30 CHELTENHAM - 2020 TRIUMPH HURDLE RESULT

1. Burning Victory 12/1
2. Aspire Tower 5/1
3. Allmankind 7/2

Sent off at 12/1, she was quickly shaken up by jockey Paul Townend, the Dan Skelton-trained Allmanking threatening her new-found lead, and Aspire Tower also gathering pace.

Try as they might, they could not match this daughter of King George winner Nathaniel for speed, as she powered away two win by nearly three lengths, giving Mullins his second Triumph Hurdle winner, and first since Scolardy in 2002.

Aspire Tower got the better of Allmankind close home to be second, with Navajo Pass missing out on the podium by three-parts of a length.

Cheltenham 2021 Friday Schedule

13:30 - Triumph Hurdle

14:10 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

16:10 Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase

16:50 Mares' Chase - NEW RACE

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle