Ultima Handicap Chase Trends - Cheltenham Festival Betting
BEST 2021 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS
- Won no more than one handicap chase
- Run at least twice that season
- Won over at least 3m
- Run at Cheltenham before
- Finished first five last time out
Betting On 2021 Ultima Handicap Chase? Follow These Trends:
Above are the top five trends to follow when looking for the winner of the 2021 Ultima Handicap Chase.
We've analysed in detail each of the last 15 runnings of this 3m1/2f Cheltenham handicap, taking deep dives into the form of the winners and placed horses, looking at their past runs, their breeding, ratings, and every other statistic we could think of.
What we found are very strong markers that will steer you towards the winner of this year's Ultima Handicap Chase. Scroll down to find out how the trends did last year, and full details of all the other Ultima Handicap Chase trends beyond the top five.
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Did Trends Win The Last Ultima Handicap Chase?
Applying the Ultima Handicap Chase trends last year, genuinely narrowed the field to only the winner The Conditional.
Trainer David Bridgwater's charge was the only runner who ticked all of the 'Top 5' trends. On 139, the eight-year-old was also on a preferable handicap rating, and got bonus points for his only handicap chase victory coming over course and distance.
Second-placed Kildisart had won two handicap chases, which made him more exposed that the last 10 winners.
The calibre of horse in this race is increasing, but still only two horses rated higher than 148 have won, and Kildisart lined up rated 150.
The Paul Nolan-trained Discorama, who finished third, was rated bang on 148, but had not won over further than 2m3f.
Fellow 11-2 favourite Vinndication had only run once in the past year, and though his last run was an impressive win in a 3m handicap chase, it was more than 100 days before Cheltenham.
All trends points towards a necessity for winners of the Ultima Handicap Chase to have more racing under their belt. You took a big chance if you bet on him, especially as he carried topweight.
KEY ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS
15-year-trends
The last 15 winners…
- Were aged no older than 10
- Had an average rating of 141
- Had run at least twice that season
10-year-trends
The last 10 winners…
- Were trained in Britain
- Finished in the first six last time out, three winning
- Had won over at least 3m over hurdles or fences
- Had won on a galloping track
- Had run at least four times in the last 12 months
- Had run at Cheltenham before, six running over fences
Nine of the last 10 winners…
- Were aged 7-9
- Had won 1-4 chases
- Had run in at least five chases
- Had run in at least one handicap chase; only Beware The Bear won more than 1
- Finished in the first three in one of their last three starts
- Last ran between 18-59 days ago
Eight of the last 10 winners…
- Had never won a Graded race
The last 40 win and place positions
40/40 placed horses
- Were aged up to 11
39/40 placed horses
- Finished in the first five in one of their last three starts
38/40 placed horses
- Had won at least 1 chase before
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KEY RACE TRENDS (10 years)
(Last major race contested prior to the Ultima Handicap Chase chase)
| Key Race | Raceourse | Winners | Place Finishers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleeve Hurdle (G2) | Cheltenham | The Druids Nephew (2015) | The Young Master (2016) |
| Classic Chase (G3) | Warwick | The Conditional (2020) | None |
| Paddy Power Chase (Grade B) | Leopardstown | Alfie Sherrin (2012) | Noble Endeavour (2017), Grand Jesture (2015) |
| Ladbrokes Trophy (G3) | Newbury | Beware The Bear (2019) | None |
| Towton Novice Chase (G2) | Wetherby | None | Vintage Clouds (2017), Green Flag (2014) |
| Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase (G3) | Cheltenham | None | Shantou Flyer (2018), Our Mick (2013 & 2012), Tullamore Dew (2013) |
| Welsh National (G3) | Chepstow | None | Vintage Clouds (2019), Beware The Bear (2018) |
| Rowland Meyrick (G3) | Wetherby | None | Lake View Lad (2019) |
| Sky Bet Chase (Listed) | Doncaster | None | Holywell(2016), Fruity O Rooney (2012) |
KEY RACE TRAINERS (10 years)
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Win% | P/L | Places |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonjo O’Neill | 7 | 2 | 29 | 20.00 | |
| David Pipe | 4 | 2 | 50 | 18.00 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 3 | 1 | 33 | 2.00 | 1 |
| Alan King | 3 | 1 | 33 | 3.00 | - |
| David Bridgwater | 4 | 1 | 25 | 4.50 | 0 |
| Neil Mulholland | 6 | 1 | 17 | 3.00 | 1 |
| Nicky Henderson | 7 | 1 | 14 | 2.00 | 1 |
How Beware The Conditional Won 2020's Ultima Handicap Chase
Dour stayer The Conditional jumped the last in front and answered every call from jockey Brendan Powell to win the 2020 Ultima Handicap Chase by a neck.
The eight-year-old had won over course and distance on his first handicap chase outing back in October, and had since finished second in the prestigious Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury.
2.50 CHELTENHAM - 2020 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE RESULT
- The Conditional 15/2
- Kildisart 10/1
- Discorama 11/2j
- Vinndication 11/2j
He was well beaten last time out in the 2m5f Classic Chase at Warwick, but trainer David Bridgwater bounced him back to form with his second application of cheekpieces, and a 59-day break.
Kildisart had every chance after the last, but could not quite reach the winner, finishing two and a quarter lengths of the less experienced Discorama, and topweight Vinndication.
2021 Cheltenham Free Bets and Offers
Cheltenham 2021 Tuesday Schedule
13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
14:10 Arkle Challenge Trophy
14:50 Ultima Handicap Chase
15:30 CHAMPION HURDLE
16:10 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
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