US Republican Primary 2016 Betting Preview: Odds Shift as Ben Carson Bids Farewell

SHARE

US Republican Primary 2016 Betting Preview: Odds Shift as Ben Carson Bids Farewell

The Republican Party's US presidential betting odds took a tumble last week after Ben Carson announced his withdrawal from the political race. The retired neurosurgeon had been one of the early favourites among the Republican candidates, but a failure to offer any concrete solutions to foreign policy issues saw him fall out of favour in the last few weeks.

Ben Carson's farewell could greatly impact the 2016 Republican Primary as his supporters are most closely aligned with the second-favourite, Ted Cruz. With Carson's supporters now without a horse in the race, the bookmakers have had to respond, which means Trump's odds have come in again but so have Cruz's.

Early Support for Carson Fades

Carson first hit the headlines in 2013 when he took on Barack Obama at the National Prayer Breakfast. Sitting on the dais alongside the president, Carson criticised Obama's progressive taxation and health care reforms and remained unapologetic after the fact. It was that speech that won him a lot of conservative fans, and it was the ensuing wave of support he was hoping to ride towards the White House.

In the lead up to Christmas it looked as though this confidence was justified, as Carson was receiving 12.5% of the support in Republican polls and odds of 14/1 with a number of bookmakers. But with the race reaching a climax, Carson recently bowed out; he stated that despite the fact people "love him", they "just don't want to vote" for him.

The Trump Train: Full Steam Ahead

At the start of the campaign trail Trump was lagging way behind the pack at 150/1 with the top sportsbooks in Las Vegas; however, after courting controversy from all sides, he's managed to capture the public's imagination and move into the betting lead.

A look through Paddy Power Sports' 2016 US presidential election odds shows that Trump is now the 8/15 favourite for the Republican vote, with Ted Cruz a distant second. That dynamic is one that's replicated at Coral Sports, with Cruz pegged at 3/1 and Marco Rubio in third with odds of 8/1.

Possible Contested Convention

Trump is the favourite with odds makers, political experts and media alike to win the Republican nomination but don't let that fool you into putting all your money on Trump. The 2016 US primaries have been one for the ages as outsiders like Trump and the Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders are breaking decade old political trends creating an especially volatile and unpredictable betting field.

Most national polls have Trump leading yet the leaders of the Republican Party are banning AGAINST Trump, claiming he doesn't represent their party's views and has kidnapped their voters. This unique inner-turmoil has produced extremely rare circumstances where some leaders are pushing for a contested convention, meaning none of the candidates (even Trump) secure the required majority of delegate votes.

If the rarely seen contested convention occurs, expect to throw out all the previously used strategies as hysteria will break out and certainly impact the odds.

Clinton's Odds On

While the demise of Carson appears to have buoyed Trump's odds in the Republican race, the growing likelihood of the billionaire's victory is slowly sinking his party's overall odds in public opinion. According to NetBet Sports' odds makers, a Republican president is now an 8/5 long shot, while the Democrats are placed at 1/2.

Paddy Power Sports' odds experts appear to agree with the current party betting lines, favouring the Democrats 4/9 vs 7/4. Of course, anything could happen, but with Carson out and Trump looking like the hot tip to take the Republican race, Hilary Clinton's betting lead is starting to increase.

Despite talk of the infamous email scandal looming in the background, Clinton is a staggering 1/33 to take the Democratic Party vote ahead of Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden at Coral Sports. If the betting experts have got it right, this would make it a Trump/Clinton showdown with the current weight of opinion backing the latter.

Clinton vs Trump?

The current odds have Clinton as the 4/9 favourite over Trump (3/1) should Trump secure the Republican nomination. The demise of Carson appears to have helped Trump's chances of success, but it's also aided the Clinton campaign. With more runners yet to fall, we can expect to see the odds shift again in the coming weeks, but exactly how they will change is anyone's guess.

For the latest odds on the US Republican Primary race, visit Coral Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


England vs West Indies ODI’s Best Odds from Top Bookmakers
England vs West Indies ODI’s Best Odds from Top Bookmakers

After the latest nail-biting International Test Match Series against the West Indies, England proved it could steal the show, winning the third game. Now, with a series of One Day Internationals (ODI) ... Read More

Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Emmy’s Top Awards 2017
Ultimate Guide to Betting on the Emmy’s Top Awards 2017

The 69th Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Sunday 17th September, and it looks to be an exciting evening for those with a nose for exemplary television shows. Check out our extensive betting preview ... Read More

England vs. West Indies Twenty20 Betting Preview and Odds
England vs. West Indies Twenty20 Betting Preview and Odds

England and the West Indies are set to clash in the Twenty20 portion of the Windies tour of the United Kingdom. This preview highlights the best bets and odds of this upcoming Test as well highlights ... Read More

Singapore Grand Prix 2017 Expert Betting Tips and Preview
Singapore Grand Prix 2017 Expert Betting Tips and Preview

The Singapore Grand Prix always delivers in terms of entertainment and this season looks as though it will be no different. With Lewis Hamilton taking the chequered flag at the recent Italian Grand Pr ... Read More

England v West Indies Third Test 2017 is Ripe for Wagering
England v West Indies Third Test 2017 is Ripe for Wagering

Having won the First Test Match in the Series against the West Indies, England were seemingly in cruise control of the Second Test going into the final day. Unfortunately, unless you were a very cleve ... Read More

Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017
Ultimate Guide to the Best Bets and Odds of NFL Season 2017

The NFL has grown in global coverage over the past decade, giving punters more in the way of betting interest and ammunition when it comes to placing value bets. With the 2017/18 NFL season kicking of ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide