Mayo vs Tyrone: All-Ireland Football Final Betting Tips

Mayo vs Tyrone: All-Ireland Football Final Betting Tips

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Mayo are not accustomed to being favourites on All-Ireland final day but that is the situation the Westerners find themselves in this Saturday if GAA betting markets are anything to go by.

Mind you, the perennial underdogs tag hasn’t served Mayo well over the years – 10 All-Ireland final defeats in 10 attempts, excluding drawn finals, since 1951 – so the shoe being on the other foot may serve James Horan’s men well.

Online Irish bookmakers generally go 4/6 on Mayo to lift the trophy over Tyrone. The Red Hands were 10/1 outsiders in All-Ireland football betting when the semi-finals were first confirmed but are now priced at 6/5 to lift the Sam Maguire.

After becoming the first team to beat Dublin in a Championship game since 2014, how Mayo deal with their new-found expectancy will be fascinating to watch this weekend.

Although the bookies are siding ever so slightly with the Connacht champions, most GAA fans and pundits believe this to be a 50-50 affair – a welcome change following Dublin’s dominance over the past six years, even if it makes the final more difficult to bet on.

Nonetheless, we’re going to have a crack at suggesting some GAA betting tips for the big game at Croke Park on Saturday, making a case for either side before arriving at our best bets on the game.

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The Case For Mayo

Tyrone have come through a number of tough battles in Ulster and shocked All-Ireland football betting enthusiasts with their semi-final win over Kerry, but they have not faced anything like this Mayo side in their run to the decider.

Mayo manager James Horan is a master tactician who is not afraid to make big calls as he showed when taking off talisman Aidan O'Shea on a rare off-day for the Breaffy man in the semi-final win over Dublin.

In the three All-Ireland final losses Horan has endured as Mayo boss, his team have gone into all of those games as betting underdogs. There's a reason that's not the case this time, with Mayo priced at 5/6 with the best betting apps to win in 70 minutes on Saturday.

Tyrone can get scores from keeper Niall Morgan and their marauding full-back line, while their sharpshooting forwards put up an impressive 3-14 in their extra-time win over The Kingdom. The difference in this final is that Mayo will not afford them the same space they were given by a weak Kerry defence. The likes of Lee Keegan, Padraig O'Hora and Eoghan McLaughlin will make life far more difficult for Tyrone.

This will be a battle between two teams who play an all-action running style, and that style of game could play right into Mayo's hands as they will have the fresher legs, having had four weeks to tune up for the decider since their semi-final victory, in comparison to just two weeks for Tyrone.

Much has been made of Mayo's inability to get over the line in All-Ireland finals over the last decade. However, what many neglect to mention is the fact that the bulk of those narrow defeats were to a Dublin side that will go down as probably the greatest team in Gaelic football history.

All-Ireland football betting odds are justifiably very tight ahead of the final, so if Mayo are to edge it, it won't be by much. That's why GAA bettors should consider Paddy Power's price of 11/4 for Mayo to win by between 1-3 points.

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The Case For Tyrone

If there’s one thing Tyrone are excellent at using to their advantage, it’s a siege mentality. Given Mayo’s heartache over the past 70 years, virtually everyone in Ireland outside of Tyrone is willing the Westerners to finally end the drought.

That will be used as a motivational tool for Tyrone, of that we can be assured, and the noises coming out of their camp in the build-up to the final have oozed with bullishness, confidence and fearlessness towards their upcoming task.

On the field, we can expect them to be well-drilled and well-conditioned given the calibre of opponents they’ve faced already in this year’s Championship – Cavan, Donegal, Monaghan and Kerry. Against the Kingdom there appeared to be no signs of fatigue despite an outbreak of Covid cases prior to the semi-final as they overran Kerry in extra-time.

Mayo will press Tyrone’s kick-outs so the Ulster champions will have to be wise to that if they’re to get a foothold in the game. But equally so, Tyrone’s zonal press will be key to any success if they’re to disrupt Mayo’s flow, cause turnovers and hit their opponents on the counter.

They may only be slight underdogs, but there’s no doubting Tyrone’s ability to upset the odds. They were as long as 22/1 to win the All-Ireland as recently as July, but their ability to dictate games has allowed them to get this far and that is something Mayo management will have to think deeply about.

The biggest difference between Tyrone and Mayo is probably the Ulster team’s consistency. Mayo’s match-day performances can fluctuate between the good and the bad, whereas Tyrone are more capable of putting in a sustained performance over 70 minutes, or 90 if required, and it’s often enough to get the job done.

One half of below-par football from Mayo will be enough to swing the momentum in Tyrone’s favour and that’s why I like the look of Tyrone to be winning at half-time at Ladbrokes’ price of 6/5.

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All-Ireland Football Final Betting Overview

Whether you are placing a bet with a long-established bookmaker or a new betting site, the All-Ireland football betting odds will reflect what nearly every analyst and pundit is predicting ahead of the final - that there will be very little to choose between the Connacht and Ulster champions. A draw or either team to win by less than four points is priced at 1/2 with Ladbrokes, which indicates just how tight this is expected to be.

Those on the hunt for value GAA betting tips for the All-Ireland football final have plenty of interesting options, aside from the main markets.

Aidan O'Shea was not his usual self in the win over Dublin but the 31-year-old is unlikely to put in two poor performances back-to-back. He has the experience and physical presence to thrive in what will be a combative clash against a physically imposing Tyrone side.

O'Shea is 10/1 with Betfair to win RTE Man of the Match, which looks like a good shout for those who are looking to individual player markets for value. Mayo sharpshooter Ryan O'Donoghue notched 1-3 in the Connacht final win over Galway and 0-5 against Dublin and can be backed at 11/1 to land the Man of the Match award.

Those looking to goalscorer markets might be intrigued by Paddy Power's 10/1 price for former Australian Rules star Conor McKenna to score the first goal. McKenna hit the net twice against Kerry and is 7/2 to score a goal anytime.

We've written at length about how close this final is expected to be and if you fancy a draw (which would lead to a replay), bet365 has priced the tie at 15/2.

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