Will the UK Leave the EU on Friday? Odds & Analysis
The Brexit debate is into another big week with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn negotiating over a possible withdrawal package from the European Union.
And a vote in the chamber very late on Monday night has legally forced the Prime Minister to avoid no deal.
This is a major twist in the Brexit process as the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 5) Act — previously known as the Cooper-Letwin Bill when it was tabled — was passed.
It means the PM now has a legal obligation to seek an extension to Article 50, thus preventing no deal, and sending shockwaves through the Brexit betting markets.
Will UK leave EU on Friday?
April 12 is the current EU deadline set for for the UK to show their hand. Theresa May now has an obligation to try and extend Article 50 — although the EU may not accept it. The ball was very much in the EU’s court as Mrs May arrived in Berlin for talks with Angela Merkel in Berlin on Tuesday.
And bookmakers William Hill have priced a no-deal exit from the EU by Saturday morning at 5/1. A price of 1/25 is in place for Article 50 to be extended and the April 12 deadline to pass smoothly. At this stage, even at those odds the likelihood is it will be approved.
William Hill also have a price of 10/1 on Article 50 being revoked before Saturday, with the UK leaving the EU with a deal priced way out at 40/1. This revocation could occur if Mrs May and her Conservative colleagues deem the EU’s terms over an extension of Article 50 too much to stomach.
What About Labour?
The past week has seen the cross-Parliamentary ding-dong step up in intensity, with the Prime Minister now deep in talks with the leader of the opposition.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the Conservatives and Labour are in deadlock over major issues such as the customs union, Northern Ireland and the possibility of a second referendum.
May and Corbyn don’t seem to have seen eye-to-eye on much, however, with Labour also talking to Sinn Fein on Monday night to ascertain their stance on proceedings.
Brussels waits patiently for news from Westminster but there is growing concern the deadlock between Labour and the Tories may not be broken.
And that means that, even if Mrs May extends Article 50, there is no guarantee the Tories and Labour will see eye-to-eye on anything.
Why Was April 12 Set as a Deadline?
The April 12 deadline is crucial for the EU because this is their deadline for member countries to confirm their plans to participate in EU elections. And this is proving controversial in Westminster.
Those elections take place between 23-26 May, which is why the May 22 date is seen by some Conservatives as the absolute last date to leave the union.
Hardline Brexiteers do not want the UK to have any part in those elections, even though legally the country will still be a member state until a deal (or crashing out with no deal) can be reached.
Next UK Prime Minister Betting
Many Tory Brexiteers also want the Prime Minister to leave now. Mrs May has insisted she will walk once the first stage of negotiations (i.e. a deal framework is in place with the EU) is settled. Should this happen before Friday, it means the Tories could be seeking a new PM by the weekend.
RedBet are running a Brexit betting special with Mrs May currently priced at 6/5 to leave her post BEFORE Brexit (in any form). Considering she has already pledged to go once Stage One of negotiations is complete, this seems a good price.
Boris Johnson is the current 4/1 favourite to be the next UK Prime Minster, according to NetBet. Michael Gove’s odds have also shortened to 9/2.
Check Out: Mr Green Sports for latest odds, free bets and welcome bonus.
United Ireland Possible?
Sinn Fein’s vice president Michelle O’Neill says the possibility of a United Ireland is growing as the UK continues to drag its heels on what to do about the Northern Ireland border.
Any threat to the open border is a red line most people in Ireland are standing by. And there is concern.
O’Neill said on Sunday: “Over the past two elections in the north the unionist majority has gone,” Mrs O’Neill added.
“A united Ireland is within our grasp. We are in the most defining period since the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 and Ireland is changing rapidly.”
And party leader Mary Lou McDonald said: “Sinn Fein will be ready, we will be prepared to energetically contest EU elections in the north.
“We will give the people of the north the opportunity to vote for a Sinn Fein candidate who will stand up for their interests, for the interests of Ireland.”
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