5 NFL Free Agents & Trades That Will Most Impact 2019 Odds
Quarterbacks change odds, even Josh Rosen. There are reports the Arizona Cardinals will draft Oklahoma Heisman Trophy winning-quarterback Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall draft pick. That would make Rosen, the No. 10 overall pick last year, trade bait.
Assuming Jacksonville will sign Nick Foles, among the teams that could make a play at Rosen are the Giants, Broncos, Dolphins and the Redskins. That could change some of those teams’ odds, not to mention the impact of Murray on Arizona’s odds.
There are a lot of excellent safeties available free agency. It is probably the best overall position in this free-agent class. Among those available are the New York Giants’ Landon Collins, the Seattle Seahawks’ Earl Thomas and Baltimore’s Eric Weddle, who was just cut.
Mathieu, though, may be the one who affects the odds the most, especially if he goes to a good team. The “Honey Badger” is a well-known player who has a history of being a playmaker. He is in the prime of his career.
Top NFL bookmakers will consider him a player who can positively change a defense. So, he could move the needle a bit when it comes to odds.
Remember Bell? He was the rare NFL player who sat out an entire season in a contract squabble. He is now free of the Pittsburgh Steelers and will move on. Among the teams that have reported interest in Bell are two teams that have been connected to Brown – Oakland and the New York Jets.
If one of these two teams were to be able to reunite both Brown and Bell, its Super Bowl and AFC odds will surely shorten. Don’t forget that Pittsburgh’s odds will likely get worse when these two stars officially leave.
If Bell goes to a contender such as the Indianapolis Colts, it could go a long way into making them a league favorite.
OK, semantics. Brown is not a free agent. He is going to be traded by the Pittsburgh Steelers. But considering all the quality pass-rushers who were given the franchise tag (such as Dallas’ DeMarcus Lawrence and Houston’s Jadeveon Clowney), an already-weak free-agent class took a hit.
Brown is changing teams and he is going to change odds. The current favorite to land Brown, who has had six straight years of 100-plus receptions, is the Oakland Raiders.
They went 4-12 and will be a longshot. But Brown would be their best player. He would give quarterback Derek Carr, if he’s not traded himself, his best weapon since he entered the NFL five years ago.
Other teams that could possibility make a run at Brown include the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans. Brown would not make any of those teams a contender, but their odds would surely shorten.
No player team changes are more noticed in the offense than at the quarterback position. Last year, we had a few big ones as Kirk Cousins left the Washington Redskins in free agency to sign a mega-deal with the Minnesota Vikings.
That triggered a trade of Alex Smith from the Kansas City Chiefs to Washington (making way for the Patrick Mahomes era) and the signing of Case Keenum, who left Minnesota for the Denver Broncos. We are going to have, at least, two quarterback moves this year.
Already, the Baltimore Ravens have agreed to trade Joe Flacco to Denver. That proposed move did not move the Broncos’ odds in most scenarios. A Foles’ shift will impact the betting line. If fact, it already has.
Some bookmakers have already lowered the Super Bowl odds of the Jacksonville Jaguars because of reports that Foles will sign with them. If Foles signs elsewhere, he will likely lower the odds of that team.
Foles has a Super Bowl MVP under his belt. The oddsmakers are clearly noticing. Thus, Foles is the player this offseason who will most affect the oddsmakers with his team switch.
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