Democrats Hit Shortest Price Yet In 2020 US Election Betting

Democrats Hit Shortest Price Yet In 2020 US Election Betting
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The 2020 US election has thrown up some remarkable betting trends in recent months and a fresh shift in the odds appears to put the Democrats way out in front to capture the White House.

Joe Biden’s party have led the national polls in America all summer, as attention now turns to the final few weeks of the campaign.

But betting markets have tended to keep Biden and his rival Donald Trump in close contention with each other.

This is largely down to punters backing Trump at a good price, which has in turn seen the Republican president’s odds shorten, while Biden’s price has edged wider.

Both men have been set at around Evens (1/1) in the US election betting markets for the past few weeks, but UK bookmakers William Hill have now produced a significant shift in favour of Biden.

Democrats Betting Odds Sink

Their market on which party will win the US election has edged the Democrats into an all-time low price of 3/4. That gives Biden a 57% implied probability of victory. The Republicans, meanwhile, have seen their odds shift out to 19/20 — their widest price for a month.

The movements suggest the late-summer surge on bets for Trump is starting to wane. Indeed, the markets appear to be correcting themselves in line with polling, which maintains that Biden still carries an average lead of around seven points.

Now, a poll lead of that magnitude is not beyond the boundaries of error and Biden still has work to do in key battleground states such as Texas and Florida if he is to beat his rival.

First debate could flip odds

What’s more, it’s clear that while Biden leads in both the polls and betting odds, a single event such as the upcoming US election debates could unsteady the favourite.

Trump used the debates back in 2016 to boost support in his contest with Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton, and the businessman is hoping to regain a similar footing in his battle with Biden when the pair clash in Cleveland on September 29.

The betting odds have not fallen in Trump’s favour since the spring, when the coronavirus outbreak, protests against racial discrimination and growing unemployment all helped topple the incumbent’s strong pitch to earn a second term.

Trump is understood to be desperate to avoid the ignominy of being a one-term president and was confident of earning another four years in the White House before Covid-19 came to American shores.

He has called foul on a number of election issues leading up to the November 3 vote, including supposed mail-in voting fraud. However, the president will require a greater shot to his election chances than finger pointing, and the debates could well provide him with the stage he needs to claw back crucial polling figures.

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