Donald Trump Election Odds Spike Then Fall Within 24 Hours

Donald Trump Election Odds Spike Then Fall Within 24 Hours
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Donald Trump has seen his odds on winning the upcoming US presidential election rise and fall within a matter of hours as punters rush to snap up inflated prices in the Republican candidate.

Trump, 74, is battling Joe Biden for the White House this autumn and has just weeks to overturn some telling polling numbers.

The current president is lagging around 10 points behind Biden, who recently passed the 50% threshold that often indicates an overwhelming chance of winning the election.

Biden’s boost in recent poll numbers – driven by Trump’s bout of coronavirus and refusal to take part in a second televised debate – coincided with a drop in approval ratings for the sitting president.

This in turn led to Trump’s US election betting odds inflating to as high as 2/1 – the longest price since markets opened on the president gaining a second term.

Trump Odds Come Back In

But as quickly as Trump’s odds touched the 2/1 mark, they have already come in to 7/4.

The swift drop in odds comes as bettors seek to take advantage of inflated Trump prices, having learned the lesson of not backing him in the 2016 election when he was the underdog to Hilary Clinton.

A flurry of bets were placed on Trump, which has driven down his price. The implied probability of him winning the November 3 vote is now 37% according to bookmakers, while the polls have him at 42%.

This discrepancy is likely to see Trump’s odds fall even further, as bettors snap him up at a greater price than the polls indicate.

And it is a movement in the market that we have seen before. During the end of August, Trump’s odds on beating Biden began to gently fall and come into line with polling figures, before swiftly surpassing them to settle level with his rival at Evens (1/1).

That was a remarkable shift considering Trump’s polling lagged behind the Democratic nominee, yet within days Trump’s odds had inflated again.

The fluctuations reveal that while the polls have steadily grown in Biden’s favour since the summer, bettors are still eyeing the Trump odds and hedging their bets.

Can Trump Win US election?

Whether or not Trump can secure a second term remains to be seen – but with just weeks before polling day it appears a long shot.

The majority of swing states currently sit in Biden’s favour, while Trump seems to be losing support across nationwide polls.

However, the president is banking on hosting rallies in front of thousands of supporters to get back in the race.

He has already complained to campaign staff that he needs more live events on his schedule, which he sees as the best way to claw back votes – just as he did in 2016.

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