Donald Trump Odds Indicate Presidential Impeachment Unlikely
Donald Trump is unlikely to be booted out of office – either via impeachment or resignation – before Joe Biden’s inauguration in late January despite growing calls for the president to leave the White House.
A day of unrest in Washington on January 6 saw Trump supporters storm the Capitol building on the day Senators ratified the electoral college vote that confirmed Biden as America’s next president.
Trump, who lost last November’s US election to Biden, had delivered a speech to crowds in Washington earlier in the day and was slow to condemn the riot that eventually ensued at the Capitol, where five people are known to have died.
There were immediate calls for the president to be impeached over the incident, while a growing number of Republicans and allies have since distanced themselves from Trump.
But the US politics betting odds indicate that an early exit of the Trump administration is unlikely.
Trump Impeachment Odds Grow
According to the latest odds, Trump is 1/41 to leave the Whole House before his presidency ends on January 20 – Biden’s inauguration day.
Those odds have already edged in from 1/33 on the day of the Capitol riot, which indicates just how entrenched the bookmakers believe Trump is to holding onto power.
The president did concede in the aftermath of the riot that a peaceful transition should now take place – but he has not let up his insistence that the 2020 US election was rigged, despite offering no evidence to support that claim.
How Could Trump Be Booted Out
There are a number of ways in which Trump could leave office before Biden’s inauguration. One is that the president simply resigns and hands over interim power to VP Mike Pence. Yet this seems unlikely.
Another option is for Pence and Cabinet officials to trigger the 25th Amendment process. This would require a two-thirds majority in both the House and the Senate to vote that Trump is unfit for office. Trump would have four days to contest the dispute before it went to a vote.
Yet Pence may decide against this route on the grounds that it could rile the Republican base.
The third avenue is to impeach the president for what would be a second time during his four-year reign. This would require support from Republicans and is a lengthy process.
What’s more, Democrats have already failed to impeach Trump over a previous political scandal involving the alleged seeking of foreign interference into the 2020 US election result. However, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has indicated that Democrats will push for this if Pence declines to act himself.
Trump is 21/1 to exit the White House before his due date. That is an indication, if ever there was one, that both bookmakers and punters believe the president will dig in and see out his full term.
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