Donald Trump Odds Suggest Senate Conviction Unlikely
Donald Trump is expected to survive a second impeachment conviction of his political career when US Senators cast their judgement on the former president in February.
Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives – the lower chamber in the US Congress – after being found to have instigated a riot that left five people dead at the Capitol building earlier in January.
It was the businessman’s second impeachment and was subsequently passed to the Senate – the higher chamber – to determine guilt.
Proceedings in the Senate are underway, with Trump being given the opportunity to argue against the House decision. Should he be found guilty, it might mean he wouldn’t be able to run for president again in 2024.
Yet the latest US politics betting odds suggest the 74-year-old will avoid conviction from the split Senate.
Trump Impeachment Conviction Odds
According to UK bookmakers Ladbrokes, Trump is 16/1 to be convicted. That suggests an implied probability of just 5.9%.
The latest betting data shows 56% of punters are backing the former president to avoid conviction, which gives an indication of just how strong Trump’s position is right now.
The reason for the heavy weight in favour of Trump comes down to the numbers in the Senate. The chamber is split 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans, with vice president Kamala Harris having a casting ballot if a vote is split down the middle.
Democrats need a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict Trump, which means attracting at least 17 votes from the Republican side.
So far, a handful of Republicans are open to voting against their former president – yet as the process drags on into February, it appears as though passions have cooled and members are falling back onto party lines.
A test vote brought by the Republicans to ascertain whether the trial is constitutional saw just five GOP senators side with the Democrats: a 55-45 result.
That has seen the odds on between 50 and 54 Senators voting to convict Trump come in to a favourite price of 11/10.
Meanwhile, a total of between 55 and 59 Senators voting for conviction is set at 5/4. Both outcomes wouldn’t be enough to uphold the House’s impeachment.
Trump 2024 Odds
While the test vote was never likely to pass, it did give Republicans the chance to ‘flush out’ senators who are likely to vote for a Trump impeachment. And in doing so, it enhanced the chances of Trump securing his ambition to run again in 2024.
The odds on Trump winning the next presidential election have held firm at around 10/1. This is good news for the businessman, who is seeking to maintain his support base over the next four years.
Current president Joe Biden has slipped to 4/1 to win the next election, with his VP Harris now the 7/2 favourite.
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