Fianna Fáil Now Have 75% Chance of Irish General Election Win

Fianna Fáil Now Have 75% Chance of Irish General Election Win
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin is in pole position to assume the role of Taoiseach (© PA Images)



Fianna Fáil look destined to win the upcoming Irish General Election after a significant poll result saw their odds of a general victory slashed.

The betting markets took a major swing after The Sunday Times and Behaviour & Attitudes Poll gave Micheál Martin’s party a 12-point lead over Fine Gael, their biggest electoral rivals.

It claims support for Fianna Fáil is at 32%, an increase of five points, while Fine Gael’s support has dropped to 20%, a seven-point decrease.

Fianna Fáil’s odds to win the election were already favourable at 4/6, but upon the release of the comprehensive research their odds were almost immediately trimmed into 2/9 with Boylesports.

That price has since drifted back out but remains heavily in their favour at 1/3 - equating to a 75% chance – making Micheál Martin the most likely candidate to be Ireland’s next Taoiseach.

Taoiseach after 2020 General Election?

CandidatePartyOddsProbability
Micheál MartinFianna Fail1/375%
Leo VaradkarFine Gael9/430.8%
Simon CoveneyFine Gael40/12.4%
Mary Lou McDonaldSinn Féin66/11.5%
Eamon RyanGreens80/11.2%
Brendan HowlinLabour300/10.3%

It appears as though time is up for current Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who is thought to have lost much of his support through his party’s controversial plan to commemorate the Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC) and Dublin Metropolitan Police (DMP).

The two forces battled against rebels during the country’s War of Independence between 1919-1921 and are seldom seen in a good light through the eyes of Irish nationals.

Initially due to take place later this month, Fine Gael opted to defer the event amid widespread criticism from TDs, elected representatives and members of the public, many of whom vowed to boycott the ceremony.

Varadkar’s party appear to have shot themselves in the foot having been odds-on favourites when the Brexit deal was struck between the EU and the UK and the Taoiseach has hinted that he is now unsure if all Fine Gael TDs would support his Government in Dáil votes.

They have since drifted to 9/4 in Betfair’s Irish General Election outright market – the biggest price they’ve been since betting opened – with less than three weeks to go before polling day on Saturday, February 8.

Fianna Fáil are now just even-money (1/1) to return to the Dáil with over 57 seats, which would represent a gain of at least 13 seats from their total of 44 at the last election in 2016. Eighty seats are required to form a majority government in Ireland.

Meanwhile, with Climate Change high on the agenda of politics worldwide, our political writer Eric Nolan predicts big gains for the Green Party in the 2020 election.

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