General Election Betting Odds Shift As Corbyn Calls For Vote
The odds on the UK government calling a general election in 2019 have fallen to their lowest yet as MPs return to Parliament this week.
The summer recess has witnessed plenty of movement in UK politics, with prime minister Boris Johnson committing to proroguing Parliament in order to stave off opponents to his Brexit stance.
Mr Johnson’s threat of taking the UK out of the EU without a deal has caused alarm among opponents.
And there is a very real chance that a general election may be called before the October 31 Brexit deadline.
Indeed, so confident are bookmakers that voters will be heading to the polls that Bethard odds have crashed to an all-time low of 1/12 on a General Election in 2019.
And the notion of the Conservatives seeing through this parliament until 2022 is now way out at 20/1 with Coral.
Two Avenues To A 2019 General Election
So how could a UK general election be called? There are two avenues in which this is likely, with the first one being Johnson calling a vote.
There is growing consensus that Mr Johnson’s raft of new policies – revealed over the summer – are part of his preparations for a snap election.
The Tory leader could call the vote in order to seek a boosted majority in the Commons and more easily push through his Brexit agenda.
Parliament would need a two-thirds majority vote to agree to a snap election — and this is something Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party would certainly support.
We have a Prime Minister who hasn’t won an election and who doesn’t have a majority.— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) September 2, 2019
When he decrees that parliament will be shut down because his plan for No Deal doesn’t have the votes, we say that is an attack on democracy which will be resisted.
The second avenue to a general election is a more hostile one.
It would involve backbench Conservative MPs joining forces with Labour, SNP, the Lib Dems and other parties to bring down the government.
The plan would be to force through a No Confidence Vote in Mr Johnson’s government and thus seize control of the house, electing a ‘Unity Prime Minister’ in Johnson’s place.
That Unity PM would then push back the Brexit deadline, eradicating the prospect of No Deal, and call a new election.
Which Outcome Is More Likely?
UK politics is facing a pivotal week as opposition MPs seek to trigger this second option.
To do this they need support of some Conservative rebels, who have since been threatened with deselection if they side with the coup.
Mr Johnson’s decision to prorogue Parliament shows he is unblinking in his determination to leave the EU on October 31 — with a deal or without.
But even if this happens the prime minister would still desire a greater Commons majority than the one MP he has right now, so a general election before 2019 is over remains likely.
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