General Election Result Sees Odds Shift in Scotland & Ireland

General Election Result Sees Odds Shift in Scotland & Ireland
Nicola Sturgeon, Taioseach Leo Varadkar and Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Julian Smith (© PA Images)

Following the result of the 2019 General Election, in which the Conservatives won a Commons majority of 80, the knock-on effect in Scotland and Northern Ireland is becoming clearer in the aftermath of the vote.

In Scotland, where independence was rejected in 2014 when the ‘No’ campaign won with over 55%, momentum is already building for another referendum with First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, leading the calls for change.

Her Scottish National Party won 47 of the 59 Scottish seats in Westminster, obliterating Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson with an increase of 11 on their 2017 result in what was one of the most notable side-stories of the General Election.

Ms Sturgeon claims the result "renews, reinforces and strengthens" the case for another referendum on Scottish independence, and the bookmakers believe this time the country would vote in favour of freedom from the UK.

Scottish Independence Odds

Betfred go as short as 2/1 that another Scottish referendum takes place in 2020 and, whether it takes place next year or later, Boylesports are in little doubt about its eventual result.

The Irish bookmaker has shortened the odds on the Scots to vote ‘Yes’ on independence from 10/11 to 4/6 on the back of the SNP’s recent gains, simultaneously pushing the odds on another ‘No’ result out to 11/10.

Indeed, newspaper journalists in England have already been putting forward the suggestion that Johnson could be the last PM to oversee the Union as we know it, but not all politics bookmakers are as convinced.

Paddy Power and Betfair are undecided on the result of the much-mooted second referendum, going 5/6 apiece on both potential outcomes.

Boylesports spokesman Lawrence Lyons said betting support for a ‘Yes’ vote has been “pouring in” since Thursday night when the results started to take shape, and pressure will now be placed on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to grant another independence referendum.

United Ireland a Possibility

In Northern Ireland, meanwhile, the situation is more complex. With Brexit due to go through on January 31, 2020, Northern Ireland faces the reality of being the only nation within the United Kingdom to share a border with an EU country, as things stand.

With Johnson making no secret of his willingness to push through with a No Deal Brexit next year, the prospect of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic is looking more likely, worryingly so for those who reside there on either side of the border.

On the Betfair Exchange, you can get 53/1 on a referendum for independence in Northern Ireland in 2020, but Paddy Power’s odds movements on a United Ireland showcase a more logical route for the future of the Emerald Isle.

In February 2019, the Irish bookmaker offered odds of 20/1 on a United Ireland by 2024. Those odds have come all the way in to 6/1 for reunification during the next parliament. And it’s no wonder the chances of a United Ireland are increasing given the gains of Sinn Fein and the SDLP in the 2019 General Election.

After what was a disastrous day for the Democratic Unionist Party, Northern Ireland now has more nationalist than unionist MPs for the first time, which could prove pivotal if politicians return to Stormont with Irish Unity on the discussion table.

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