How Many Republican Senators Will Vote To Convict Donald Trump?
Donald Trump’s trial in the US Senate over the conviction from a second impeachment while president of the United States will likely be decided upon on Monday or Tuesday, with the businessman tipped to be found not guilty.
Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives in the final days of his presidency before he surrendered the White House to Democrat Joe Biden.
The impeachment was down to his role in addressing a mob of supporters who broke into the Capitol building on January 6 – a riot that left five people dead.
The Senate, which is split between Republicans and Democrats by 50 seats each, needs a two-thirds majority vote to uphold Trump’s impeachment and convict the former president – a decision that would likely bar him from being able to run for office in 2024.
That means the Democrats need 17 Republicans to vote with them. Yet the US politics betting odds currently suggest Trump will avoid conviction.
Latest Trump Impeachment Odds
According to Ladbrokes, Trump is 1/50 not to be convicted. The reason for the major swing in the 74-year-old’s favour is thanks to a recent vote in the upper chamber of Congress where Senators voted on whether the trial was lawful.
That count needed only a majority of one to pass, so 51 votes, rather than the conviction from impeachment trial, which needs a two-thirds majority.
The lawfulness vote passed by 56-44, with six Republicans crossing party lines to vote with the Democrats. But as things stand, this would not be enough to convict Trump if all Senators voted the same way next time.
Indeed, there are currently odds of 4/6 for fewer than six Republicans to convict Trump. A price of 11/10 on more than six Republicans voting against their former president indicates just how unlikely that is.
Cooling Off Period
When Democrats initially brought impeachment proceedings against Trump in Congress, there was an expectation that Republicans would side with their political opponents to convict the businessman.
Emotions were still raw after the storming of the Capitol, where members of Congress were forced to hide from those entering the building.
However, since then politicians appear to have reverted back to party lines. And while the Democrats are expected to vote en masse to convict Trump, it seems unlikely enough Republicans will join them.
Denying a conviction would give Trump fresh hope of standing once again for president in 2024.
The mogul has already hinted that he will return to frontline politics and will likely challenge for the Republican candidacy.
He is currently the 10/1 third favourite to become president in 2024, after Biden (4/1) and vice-president Kamala Harris (7/2).
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