How US Election Odds Reacted To Trump’s Demand For Delay

How US Election Odds Reacted To Trump’s Demand For Delay
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The President's Twitter activity constantly has traders and politics punters on red alert

Donald Trump’s calls for the 2020 US election to be postponed have triggered shockwaves throughout politics betting markets and polls.

President Trump tweeted that the upcoming November 3 election should be shifted because of apparent issues with mail voting.

He tweeted: “With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???”

Mr Trump has previously made unsubstantiated claims about how an upturn in mail votes used at the upcoming election due to coronavirus would negatively impact on his chances of winning.

But this is the first time the 74-year-old has actively called for the election to be postponed and bookmakers have reacted swiftly to the announcement.

Odds On Election Delay

UK bookmakers Ladbrokes immediately set a price of 7/1 on no election being held in 2020. To put that into context, before Trump’s tweet some bookmakers had odds of 1/20 – a probability of 95.2% – on the election taking place this year.

The leap shows just how volatile the market is, and also exposes how unpredictable Mr Trump is.

The businessman has no explicit power to set the date of the election but he could certainly lean on those in Congress to try and force a change.

Trump vs Biden Polls

Recent polling suggests Trump is losing ground on Democrat Joe Biden in the race to win a second term in office.

The incumbent is trailing in all but two US national opinion polls, while others have Biden out in front by as much as +13.

Trump’s polling slump began in the spring when he denied the coronavirus outbreak would affect America. Fast-forward four months and unemployment has skyrocketed, virus hotspots are spiking across the country and the government has signed off on trillions of dollars in bailouts.

The president’s odds on winning the 2020 election widened to a new price of 7/4, while Biden is now 8/15 with Boylesports to enter the White House – an odds drop from 3/5 just minutes after Trump’s tweet.

Could Trump Quit?

Trump has already been forced to abandon plans to stage the Republican National Convention due to coronavirus fears, while his rally in Tulsa attracted just 6,200 people.

So volatile has Trump’s campaign for re-election been that there are suggestions he could simply quit the race altogether.

He is now just 8/1 not to be the Republican nominee – which suggests an 11% chance of him exiting the stage before the vote.

Were Trump to drop out then his vice president Mike Pence would almost certainly step in at such short notice. However, Pence also has a negative approval rating and some bookies have him at 100/1 to be the next president.

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