Keir Starmer Latest Odds as Labour Leader Struggles For Unity
Sir Keir Starmer is contesting the toughest period of his year-long reign as Labour leader to date after a shattering local elections result for the UK’s main opposition party cast fresh scrutiny onto his leadership.
Despite mounting pressure on the Conservative government over a sleaze scandal and a record coronavirus death toll in Europe, Starmer’s party was handed a crushing blow in elections across the country.
Hartlepool turned blue for the first time in history, while the Tories did far better than anticipated in local council elections. The only saving grace for Starmer was that the Greater Manchester and London mayoral elections stayed red.
Starmer was quick to enact a reshuffle in the wake of the election results, although even those haven’t gone quite as he had planned.
And criticism from left-leaning wings of the Labour party is fuelling growing calls for the leader to be replaced.
Keir Starmer Exit Odds
According to bookmakers William Hill, Starmer is 8/15 to lose his leadership of the Labour party by the end of 2023. In contrast, Starmer is 9/2 to lose his job in 2024 – the year the next general election is scheduled to take place.
Based on the politics betting odds, the chances Starmer stays in his post beyond the next two-and-a-half years sits at just 44.8%.
Meanwhile, Labour’s odds on winning the most seats at the next general election have ballooned to 7/4, with the Tories now 1/2 to remain in power.
Starmer himself was only voted in as Labour leader back in April 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic was starting to grip the country. He initially had high polling figures, with a 48% approval rating last summer far greater than that of PM Boris Johnson’s.
However, since the new year and the deliverance of Brexit, Starmer’s disproval rating has skyrocketed. Now, 65% of the population believe Starmer is doing badly as leader of the opposition, while only 17% look on him favourably.
Who Could Replace Starmer?
Were Starmer to lose his post, there would likely be a rush of candidates to replace him. Andy Burnham – who was granted a second spell as Greater Manchester mayor at the local elections – is the 3/1 favourite to be the next Labour leader.
Wigan MP and shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy is second favourite at 7/1, while shadow chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Angela Rayner is in at 8/1.
London mayor Sadiq Khan, meanwhile, could follow in the same trajectory as Johnson and move back into national politics once his stint in the capital is up.
His odds are varying wildly depending on the bookmaker, with some offering a price as high as 14/1 and others as low as 5/1 on Khan being the next Labour leader.
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