Next UK Minister To Leave Odds Swings To Alok Sharma
Alok Sharma is the most likely top Tory to next lose their job but could be beaten to the exit post by Nadine Dorries, political betting data suggests.
Prime minister Boris Johnson recently conducted a cabinet reshuffle in order to freshen up his front bench and push ahead with the Conservatives’ post-Covid plans to rebuild the economy.
The change to his top ministers means a number of lead figures in the early days of Johnson’s reign have now been discarded, but the likes of Dominic Raab, Priti Patel, and Michael Gove remain.
Yet it is Sharma who is expected to get the boot before Johnson’s other front bench MPs.
According to the latest odds from UK bookmakers, the GOP26 President is all set to be moved on from his position next. And there is certainly a reason behind this price deflation, which has nothing to do with Sharma himself.
Here, Gambling.com looks at the main contenders from within Johnson’s government who could get get the boot next.
Alok Sharma 2/1
Sharma is by no means a controversial figure in Johnson’s government, especially compared to some of the PM’s other cabinet ministers. But his job as COP26 President is likely to be dissolved once the climate summit in Glasgow this November is concluded. Sharma has been in the post since the start of 2021 and surrendered his job as energy secretary to take the role.
Whether he gets a new cabinet position or is silently disposed of after COP26 remains to be seen, but the bookmakers clearly believe he is primed for the chop.
Nadine Dorries 6/1
Closely behind Sharma is Dorries, who was recently appointed as Johnson’s new culture secretary. The 64-year-old has gone on the offensive in tackling perceived bias at the BBC and is now in charge of Channel 4’s future.
Dorries is a committed social Conservative and a dedicated Johnson ally, the perfect figure to amplify the PM’s populist mantra. It would be a major surprise if she is ousted any time soon and the odds could soon reflect this.
Dominic Raab 11/1
Having lost his job as foreign secretary, Raab is now Deputy Prime Minister and justice secretary. Yet the 47-year-old is perhaps most recognisable among the British public as a face of Covid lockdowns, when Johnson’s most dedicated allies took it in turns to face the media.
Raab suffered plenty of repetitional damage of the UK’s botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan over the summer and has just a 21% approval rating. However, having already been demoted once it appears unlikely he will subsequently be sacked from his current post.
Priti Patel 11/1
It is perhaps a surprise that Priti Patel is as short as 11/1 to be the next cabinet minister sacked, considering the home secretary is on good terms with the PM.
Patel has been afforded free reign to run her office as she sees fit and has implemented a hostile stance towards immigration and refugees that resonates well with the Conservatives’ core voters. She is a very viable candidate to one-day replace Boris Johnson, and so her sacking here seems very unlikely.
Grant Shapps 14/1
Of the band of MPs that have been sacked by Johnson – including Robert Jenrick, Gavin Williamson and Robert Buckland – Grant Shapps could easily have been one.
The transport secretary has withstood plenty of controversy during his two-year reign in office, including debacles over the UK’s high-speed rail network, rising train fares, and the recent lorry driver crisis. Yet Shapps’ odds aren’t moving much, which suggests he’s nowhere near the firing line. This could change over Christmas however if haulage issues persist.
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