Latest Georgia Senate Betting Odds As Trump Ramps Up Talks
Donald Trump’s hopes of leaving the White House with a Republican majority in the US Senate as his sole reprieve looks increasingly likely as the betting odds swing in the GOP’s favour and against the latest polls.
President Trump lost the US election to Democrat rival Joe Biden in November but the Republicans are hopeful they will at least win the upper house.
The GOP currently lead the Senate race by 50 seats to 48, with only Georgia’s two seats remaining to be decided.
Republican Sen. David Perdue is facing a knife-edge battle with Democrat Jon Ossoff, while in a special election Democrat Raphael Warnock leads Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler.
Should the Republicans claim one of these two elections then they will win the majority. But should the house be tied 50/50 then the incoming president – Biden – will get the final vote on any dead heats.
Georgia Senate Betting Latest
The date for both elections is scheduled for January 5. Ossoff v Sen. Perdue is classed as a standard run-off election because neither candidate earned a majority on November 3.
Meanwhile, Warnock v Sen. Loeffler is considered a ‘special election’ because the latter was only appointed to the Senate in January 2020, to fill a vacancy.
And the Republicans for now look to be in the driving seat. UK bookmakers Ladbrokes have the GOP at 4/11 favourites to win over 50 seats – in effect, to win one of these two run-off elections. The odds on them being tied 50/50 is priced at 2/1, which has an implied probability of 33%.
Trump’s ramping up of his campaigning for the two Senate seats seems to have aided the GOP’s odds boost – although both sides are currently scattering volunteers across the state in an effort to gain support.
Incumbent Republican Senator David Purdue is 1/2 to beat his rival Jon Ossoff in January, even though the latest polls have the Democrat leading 48.7% to 47.9%. That indicates just how split pollsters are to punters, with bettors often seeking to back an ‘outsider’ at good odds, which in turn drives the price down.
Meanwhile, the Dems’ Raphael Warnock is the 5/4 outsider to oust Sen. Loeffler (4/7) from her seat. Once again, the polls actually have the Democrat candidate out in front.
Historic Split Between Polls And Odds
It isn’t the first time the US politics betting odds and opinion polls have run on separate trajectories.
Back in 2016 Hilary Clinton was expected to win a landslide victory over Trump in the polls, yet the odds called the race far tighter. Trump eventually won, as did his backers.
This year, some polls gave Biden a 90% chance of winning the election, while bookmakers made it closer to 60%. And, as we saw, were it not for a handful of Rust Belt states flipping Blue, Trump would likely be celebrating a second term in the White House.
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