New York Mayor Election Betting Has Yang As Early Favourite
Andrew Yang is the early favourite to win the New York mayoral election later this year after becoming the most recent big-name candidate to stand for the Democratic party.
Mr Yang, 46, has little front-line political experience but worked for Barack Obama during his presidency as an Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship.
He stood as a Democratic candidate for the 2020 presidential election but eventually endorsed Joe Biden, who went on to beat Donald Trump in last year’s vote.
The New York mayoral election is seen as a stepping stone to bigger things for many figureheads in politics – and 2021 is expected to produce an overwhelming Democratic vote.
Because of this, bookmakers are siding with the Democrats who have already put their name forward. Yet while Yang is the favourite among pollsters and odds setters, there is a big split into how these two camps see the election going.
Yang Leads New York Betting
Bookies price Yang at 10/11 to win the New York mayoral election. That gives him an implied probability of winning at around 52%.
His closest rival to date – Brooklyn Borough president and former New York Senator Eric Adams – is priced as high as 5/1 with some bookmakers to win the contest.
Adams’ odds suggest he has a 16.7% chance of winning, which is almost identical to his polling numbers. Yet remarkably, pollsters have Yang polling at 17% – a staggering 35 points below the bookmakers’ price.
The divergence shows just how confident punters are in Yang claiming the election victory – a backing that is reflected in the 82% of bets being placed on the frontrunner so far.
When Is The 2021 New York Mayoral Election?
The New York mayoral election is scheduled to take place in November 2021. Before then, both the Republicans and Democrats will hold primaries to determine their candidates for the race.
Donald Trump’s reign as Republican president of the United States between 2016 and 2020 is seen as a significant influence to how New Yorkers will vote in the mayoral election.
The Democrats are currently heavy favourites to claim victory, which means whoever wins their primary is almost certain to secure a four-year term as city mayor.
Issues over the coronavirus response, housing and the jobs market will likely dominate the mayoral campaign this year. Bill de Blasio will leave his post after completing two terms as mayor – the first Democrat to hold the position since David Dinkins in the 1980s.
Other Candidates For New York Mayor
The list of other 2021 New York mayoral candidates shows further divergencies between polls and bookmakers.
Maya Wiley has a 7% polling rating but is fifth favourite among the betting odds at 12/1. Ahead of the 57-year-old are Scott Stringer (5/1) and Ray McGuire (8/1) – two candidates who have polling ratings of 5% or below.
The reason for the polling and odds discrepancies is likely due to bettors feeling out the market and snapping up prices they think are too good to refuse. This happened during the 2020 presidential election, where bettors drove Trump’s price down in case he pulled off a repeat of his shock 2016 election triumph.
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