Odds Cut on Boris Johnson Triggering 2019 General Election

Odds Cut on Boris Johnson Triggering 2019 General Election

Boris Johnson is the new prime minister of Great Britain and it appears the 55-year-old is already planning to trigger a general election this year.

Johnson got to work on forming his cabinet on Wednesday evening and ditched numerous ministers loyal to Theresa May.

His new set of ministers comprise of strong Vote Leave campaigners — a sign Johnson wants everyone singing from the same hymn sheet when it comes to Brexit.

Yet this streamlining of cabinet consciousness is also being seen as a plot to prepare for a general election.

Bookmakers Betway have shortened their odds on a 2019 general election from 13/8 to 6/5 within a month. And the confidence Mr Johnson will call a snap election is driving down the prices of other bookies too.

Why Would Johnson Call An Election?

Johnson arrives in No. 10 without a majority in Parliament — an issue Theresa May had to deal with since her disastrous snap election in 2017.

The lack of Tory majority meant Mrs May’s Brexit deal with the EU was not voted through by Parliament.

Indeed, any deal must gain the acquiescence of Parliament, and convincing Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP to sign up to a deal has proved impossible.

So Johnson needs an election to grow his majority and take command of the House of Commons. He was arguably elected as the new Conservative leader on the basis many believe he above anyone else can beat Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn.

Politics betting traders have moved their odds on a 2019 snap election in to 33/50, while Johnson is Evens (1/1), i.e. 50-50, to be PM after the next vote.

What About The Brexit Party?

There is concern among Tory voters that the Brexit Party is stealing much of their vote.

Indeed, Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has himself called for a general election, buoyed on the results of May’s European elections. But this might backfire for the Brexit Party now Johnson is in power.

The new PM ran to be Tory leader on a ticket of getting the UK out of the EU. Many leave voters appear to have faith in Johnson’s commitment to trigger Brexit by 31 October, either with a deal or not.

And the latest polling from Britain Elects certainly looks favourable for Johnson. The Tories are polling at 25%, with the Lib Dems at 23% and Labour 19%.

The Brexit Party — the place many of the Conservative heartland have flocked to — are polling at just 17% and have dropped two points since Johnson’s appointment.

This is good news for Johnson as Brexit Party voters appear to be moving back to the Tories.