5 Outsiders That Could Outrun Their Grand National 2021 Odds
Gambling.com looks at the long shots who might actually defy their odds in the 2021 Grand National.
Anibale Fly (33/1)
J P McManus has an extremely strong hand in this year’s race and although the likes of Any Second Now and Kimberlite Candy look more obvious candidates, a bold show from the much bigger-priced Anibale Fly would come as no surprise.
The Tony Martin-trained 11-year-old already has a fourth and fifth in this famous race on his CV, the latest of which, in 2019, is a really strong piece of form given he was carrying topweight.
A disappointing series of runs means that he gets in this time off a much lower mark of 155, giving him a huge chance of hitting the frame at least is he can show anything close to his best form.
However, having run big in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham prior to both of those previous Grand National finishes, this time around he comes into the race a completely fresh horse having had just a prep run in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in the last 12 months.
He tends to show his best form in the spring so it looks worth taking the chance that his savvy connections have sweetened this talented stayer up again – he's three times the price this time.
Mister Malarky (40/1)
The case for Mister Malarky is largely conditions-based as, although his most recent success in a hot handicap chase at Ascot came on heavy ground, he is a horse that operates particularly well on a sound surface so drying conditions at Aintree will be right up his street.
Grand National fences will be a new experience for this 8-year-old but he has a strong piece of form already in the book around Aintree having finished second to Kildisart in a Grade 3 handicap chase around the Mildmay course in 2019.
We have no way of knowing for sure if he has the stamina for this but connections have long felt that he is a national type of horse and, if he is going to stay, it’s going to be on the sort of ground that he is going to get this week.
Mister Malarky had a wind op prior to his third in a Grade 3 contest at Kempton in February and he’s been kept fresh for this since. He’s a good jumper in the main so if he can get into a good position early and into a nice jumping rhythm then he’s a player on ground that he will love.
Acapella Bourgeois (33/1)
The Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse is traditionally one of the key Irish trials for a Grand National tilt and I can’t be the only one that is struggling to see why this year’s winner, Acapella Bourgeois (who also won the 2020 edition of the race), is three times the price of the horse he beat at Fairyhouse, Burrows Saint.
Almost five lengths separated the pair at the line and they meet on pretty much the same terms at Aintree, so it seems a little odd that Burrows Saint is a single-figure price when his conqueror can be backed at 33/1.
Borrows Saint is a much younger horse, ergo has more scope to flourish but the Bobbjo Chase form is the here and now and it told us that Acapella Bourgeois heads to Aintree in great shape.
No one knows whether he’ll take to Aintree in the same way as he does to his beloved Fairyhouse but it’s not as if we are taking a short price to find out and his bold-jumping, front-running way of going about his business means he’ll be well out of the way of any trouble in behind. He could give his supporters a great run for their money from the front.
Farclas is a bit of an unknown quantity in the staying chase division because he’s only been as far as three miles once (actually saw trip out quite well considering how hard he pulled in early section of the race) but his prospects of staying have been boosted by the drying conditions at Aintree, which he will love.
He also comes into the race in form having only found handicap ‘good thing’ The Shunter too good in the Paddy Power Plate at Cheltenham last month, indeed he might even have made a proper race of it with the winner had he not clipped heels and stumbled when trying to make headway around the home turn.
The history books say a 7-year-old can’t win – it’s not been done since 1940, but three of the last five winners have been aged eight and very few 7-year-old’s have even run in the race in recent times.
Farclas has shown on more than one occasion this season that the hurly-burly of a big-field contest doesn’t faze him and his connections know a thing or two about what sort of horse is needed for this race, so it might pay not to underestimate him despite his unusual profile for the race.
Hogan’s Height (66/1)
When a horse looked as good as Hogan’s Height did when winning over the Grand National fences in 2019, then he’s got to be on the radar this week.
Things have clearly not gone according to plan since Hogan’s Height demolished those Grand Sefton rivals by a whopping 16-lengths but he took to the fences so well that day that he could easily make a complete mockery of his 66/1 odds.
His run behind Tiger Roll in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham hardly inspires confidence but he lost two shoes during that contest which at least provides some sort of an excuse.
He’s lightly-raced for his age, acts particularly well on a sound surface and comes into the race a relatively fresh horse having only had two runs in the last year.
As with so many of his rivals, we don’t know if he’ll be able to see out the longer trip but connections have long-felt that stamina was his strong suit and conditions will ensure that this year’s race isn’t as attritional as it might be.
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