Presidential Election Odds Hint At Record Turnout
The US presidential election is expected to witness the highest turnout in history as Donald Trump and Joe Biden go head-to-head for the White House.
And the latest politics betting data indicates that turnout will easily surpass 60%, with bettors flooding to the market to drive the odds down further.
An estimated 50 million Americans have already cast their ballots for the 2020 US election more than five days before polling day itself.
Early voting has been spurred on by the spread of coronavirus, which means some voters now cannot cast their votes at ballot boxes, while others want to avoid what are expected to be long queues come November 3.
Sitting president Trump has suggested that mail-in voting is vulnerable to fraud – although there is no evidence for this. Americans are already queuing in some districts to vote early in person.
Record Election Turnout
And the rush to cast votes before election day – coupled with what is likely to be a huge turnout on the day itself – has convinced analysts that 2020 will break turnout records in the United States.
According to the US Elections Project, around 150 million Americans will cast their ballots this autumn – and a third have already done so. That represents roughly 65% of eligible voters, the highest rate since 1908 (before universal suffrage was enforced).
Politics odds from UK bookmakers currently price a 60% turnout at 1/4. That price is dropping by the day as more and more Americans vote early.
Meanwhile, the odds on a 58%-60% turnout have come in to 7/2. In 2016, when Trump beat Hilary Clinton to the White House, voter turnout was just 55.5%.
In fact, the last US election to witness a +60% turnout was back in 1968, when Richard Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey to secure his first of two terms as president.
Biden Leads Trump
Heading into the last few days of the election and Democrat Biden has a 10-point lead over Trump. Barack Obama’s former vice president also boasts a comfortable lead in the betting markets.
However, punters are still snapping up high prices for Trump – wary that the incumbent could shock the polls again and land a second term in the White House.
Trump’s odds have peaked and toughed in recent weeks, coming in level with Biden at the end of August before inflating again.
The pair are hitting the campaign trail hard in the run-up to the election, with Florida a particularly competitive state for both sides.
Biden may lead in the polls but a number of swing states – which often decide tight elections – are still to be fought over.
Trump is ahead in Ohio, while Biden should comfortably claim Michigan and Wisconsin. But Florida, Iowa and North Carolina could all go either way.
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